{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce8c7ce1-5546-45bc-88c6-166f6bf1a5e6", "symbol": "COHU", "name": "Cohu Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.537, "architecture_energy": 20.496, "architecture_maturity": 77.517, "architecture_confidence": 89.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.05, "rotation_up": 18.68, "upward_expansion": 51.91, "deceleration": 93.96, "rotation_down": 35.49, "downward_expansion": 20.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.134, 54.454545, 53.20419, 48.822054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.88, "trend_reference": 42.8225, "distance_from_trend": 0.234865, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.458782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.79505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 38.973425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.7141, "excess_performance": 0.526647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.234865, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.335886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.79505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037877, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.389734, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.7141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444982, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4297719, "relative_activity": 0.683651, "balance": 0.444982, "dry_up": 0.824401, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199921, "annualized_volatility": 0.607851, "from_high_reference": -0.291153, "from_low_reference": 1.83308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.8225, "fair_value_reference": 29.458782, "structural_low": 26.6301, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060252, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013582, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.397696, "worst_return": -0.086957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.156478, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.350949, "worst_return": -0.14316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.059876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.212516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249921, "worst_return": -0.13017, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072126, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132197, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.369095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088753, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.357793, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101896, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.37, "volume": 1407269, "typical_volume": 1149986.5, "trend": 37.463333, "fair_value": 33.554359, "relative_strength": -12.560914, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.749931, "energy": 9.553938, 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56.893636, 48.971881, 43.657129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 59.27, "volume": 6128056, "typical_volume": 5730730.45, "trend": 38.270167, "fair_value": 29.07641, "relative_strength": 70.098057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.980164, "energy": 65.199018, "activity_lines": [ 62.222667, 57.977273, 50.566143, 45.085699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 56.17, "volume": 7300116, "typical_volume": 5876935.3, "trend": 39.3465, "fair_value": 29.182436, "relative_strength": 55.837794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.514596, "energy": 56.491527, "activity_lines": [ 60.686667, 58.272909, 51.728643, 46.240527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.19, "volume": 4707129, "typical_volume": 5949741.05, "trend": 40.268833, "fair_value": 29.253333, "relative_strength": 46.010721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.384024, "energy": 35.26346, "activity_lines": [ 57.066667, 57.470727, 52.299667, 47.004624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.7, "volume": 2461892, "typical_volume": 5934589.35, "trend": 41.175833, "fair_value": 29.305897, "relative_strength": 44.732318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.94578, "energy": 22.659195, "activity_lines": [ 53.959333, 56.549455, 52.724071, 47.677602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.99, "volume": 9263401, "typical_volume": 6278978.75, "trend": 41.955167, "fair_value": 29.358718, "relative_strength": 34.47502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.27441, "energy": 22.443724, "activity_lines": [ 51.195333, 55.070727, 52.780667, 48.117226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.88, "volume": 4297719, "typical_volume": 6286427.05, "trend": 42.8225, "fair_value": 29.458782, "relative_strength": 38.973425, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.536995, "energy": 20.495594, "activity_lines": [ 51.134, 54.454545, 53.20419, 48.822054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }