{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce907e4e-1bc0-40f6-be55-2ae1704b450c", "symbol": "CAPSL", "name": "Capsol Technologies ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.483, "architecture_energy": 47.418, "architecture_maturity": 6.303, "architecture_confidence": 53.774, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.4, "rotation_up": 64.82, "upward_expansion": 51.56, "deceleration": 19.37, "rotation_down": 14.55, "downward_expansion": 24.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.112667, 4.892727, 4.72181, 4.740495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.1, "trend_reference": 4.839667, "distance_from_trend": 0.053792, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.142885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.497184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.231338, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003906, "excess_performance": -0.1289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053792, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.497184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062278, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.174929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71903, "relative_activity": 0.405581, "balance": 0.174929, "dry_up": 0.548306, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090649, "annualized_volatility": 0.407253, "from_high_reference": -0.445652, "from_low_reference": 0.294416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.839667, "fair_value_reference": 10.142885, "structural_low": 3.94, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057252, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.171642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050955, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135659, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"energy": 15.998598, "activity_lines": [ 4.563333, 4.468, 4.554905, 4.693935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.69, "volume": 23146, "typical_volume": 293803.65, "trend": 4.938333, "fair_value": 10.3125, "relative_strength": -30.496889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.942883, "energy": 16.436897, "activity_lines": [ 4.636667, 4.505818, 4.559095, 4.674452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 178990, "typical_volume": 286719.8, "trend": 4.908333, "fair_value": 10.254167, "relative_strength": -20.756706, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.930775, "energy": 27.78117, "activity_lines": [ 4.914, 4.674727, 4.630476, 4.704237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.24, "volume": 114784, "typical_volume": 250390.55, "trend": 4.869667, "fair_value": 10.196731, "relative_strength": -22.224514, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.608159, "energy": 36.805264, "activity_lines": [ 5.064667, 4.803636, 4.682714, 4.725634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.1, "volume": 71903, "typical_volume": 177283.8, "trend": 4.839667, "fair_value": 10.142885, "relative_strength": -23.231338, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.483173, "energy": 47.418292, "activity_lines": [ 5.112667, 4.892727, 4.72181, 4.740495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }