{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce91430a-5512-4681-8fb8-099a80296415", "symbol": "KN", "name": "Knowles Cor", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.283, "architecture_energy": 26.921, "architecture_maturity": 69.785, "architecture_confidence": 92.999, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.36, "rotation_up": 30.22, "upward_expansion": 55.59, "deceleration": 90.92, "rotation_down": 26.45, "downward_expansion": 19.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.467333, 37.721636, 36.853714, 34.665484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.08, "trend_reference": 31.756667, "distance_from_trend": 0.230608, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.892952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.454368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.44848, "excess_performance": 0.322855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.230608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.892952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031331, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.264544, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.44848, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.017773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4340842, "relative_activity": 0.912117, "balance": 1.017773, "dry_up": 1.05579, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100126, "annualized_volatility": 0.347591, "from_high_reference": -0.089681, "from_low_reference": 0.987287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.756667, "fair_value_reference": 20.645, "structural_low": 23.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005221, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.023208, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.203223, "worst_return": -0.126415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032892, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.574292, "worst_return": -0.237453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047009, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.717901, "worst_return": -0.217453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018874, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.091317, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.637734, "worst_return": -0.074057, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026813, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069055, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093151, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 37.05, "volume": 4923436, "typical_volume": 4371808.6, "trend": 29.777, "fair_value": 20.131987, "relative_strength": 27.25924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.873582, "energy": 51.890889, "activity_lines": [ 38.336, 38.211455, 35.38, 32.954086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.23, "volume": 3072591, "typical_volume": 4370576.4, "trend": 30.214333, "fair_value": 20.246346, "relative_strength": 21.764521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.779283, "energy": 32.378907, "activity_lines": [ 37.077333, 37.766727, 35.641667, 33.305892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.58, "volume": 6648883, "typical_volume": 4527871.7, "trend": 30.737, "fair_value": 20.374103, "relative_strength": 29.46988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.724658, "energy": 24.225416, "activity_lines": [ 36.905333, 37.750182, 36.088762, 33.781097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.59, "volume": 6036065, "typical_volume": 4695529.7, "trend": 31.225, "fair_value": 20.501538, "relative_strength": 23.681101, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.320178, "energy": 20.971637, "activity_lines": [ 36.656, 37.508909, 36.380857, 34.15871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.08, "volume": 4340842, "typical_volume": 4759084.15, "trend": 31.756667, "fair_value": 20.645, "relative_strength": 26.454368, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.282809, "energy": 26.920767, "activity_lines": [ 37.467333, 37.721636, 36.853714, 34.665484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }