{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce938947-686b-4a39-8e89-3ef431ab44fd", "symbol": "S30", "name": "Solutions 30 SE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.8, "architecture_energy": 57.994, "architecture_maturity": 24.193, "architecture_confidence": 79.041, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.31, "rotation_up": 14.88, "upward_expansion": 9.82, "deceleration": 46.1, "rotation_down": 66.07, "downward_expansion": 83.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.558333, 0.578036, 0.616586, 0.648662 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.585, "trend_reference": 0.711167, "distance_from_trend": -0.177408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.452436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.597228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.28853, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.352159, "excess_performance": -0.405471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177408, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.597228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.392885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352159, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.248935, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2543401, "relative_activity": 1.159913, "balance": 3.248935, "dry_up": 0.866584, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106246, "annualized_volatility": 0.628994, "from_high_reference": -0.718479, "from_low_reference": 0.193878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.711167, "fair_value_reference": 1.452436, "structural_low": 0.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.026445, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.034923, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.380368, "worst_return": -0.285537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.037403, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.040084, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.580278, "worst_return": -0.428716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.229746, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.223428, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498729, "worst_return": -0.499535, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007835, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.254642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.37697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.335835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177305, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.754, "volume": 1338861, "typical_volume": 3668006.0, "trend": 2.641733, "fair_value": 6.732372, "relative_strength": 9.42233, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.54, "volume": 1410779, "typical_volume": 2101978.6, "trend": 0.763567, "fair_value": 1.512821, "relative_strength": -47.339542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.764499, "energy": 79.070804, "activity_lines": [ 0.598067, 0.648509, 0.655567, 0.697859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.55, "volume": 1777918, "typical_volume": 2139844.35, "trend": 0.7534, "fair_value": 1.497449, "relative_strength": -44.831339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.960231, "energy": 84.523316, "activity_lines": [ 0.5718, 0.626945, 0.643183, 0.684081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.522, "volume": 1091913, "typical_volume": 2110345.7, "trend": 0.738867, "fair_value": 1.481282, "relative_strength": -46.489665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.626722, "energy": 88.394361, "activity_lines": [ 0.546733, 0.601945, 0.62969, 0.669152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.561, "volume": 2187584, "typical_volume": 2164407.75, "trend": 0.724717, "fair_value": 1.46666, "relative_strength": -41.89304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.175645, "energy": 80.510092, "activity_lines": [ 0.546867, 0.586655, 0.621412, 0.657676 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.585, "volume": 2543401, "typical_volume": 2192752.1, "trend": 0.711167, "fair_value": 1.452436, "relative_strength": -39.28853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.80025, "energy": 57.993922, "activity_lines": [ 0.558333, 0.578036, 0.616586, 0.648662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }