{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ce94068e-3fe1-4e37-8af5-4762f8060d67",
    "symbol": "002237",
    "name": "Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 84.331,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -44.804,
    "architecture_energy": 32.462,
    "architecture_maturity": 30.589,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.769,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 30.51,
        "rotation_up": 23.56,
        "upward_expansion": 10.84,
        "deceleration": 60.66,
        "rotation_down": 42.16,
        "downward_expansion": 69.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        13.312,
        13.268364,
        13.799941,
        14.418363
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 14.25,
    "trend_reference": 15.207204,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.062944,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.110414,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176673,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.355971,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.310261,
    "excess_performance": -0.317661,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062944,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002615,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.176673,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.247451,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04356,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.041212,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.310261,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.825364,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 147649263,
      "relative_activity": 1.179626,
      "balance": 0.825364,
      "dry_up": 1.024381,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.090909,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.522995,
      "from_high_reference": -0.395161,
      "from_low_reference": 0.205584
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.207204,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.110414,
      "structural_low": 12.05,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": 0.03691,
        "positive_rate": 0.647059,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.352941,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003064,
        "regime_survival": 0.764706,
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        "worst_return": -0.099258,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.015464,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": 0.072284,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
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        "worst_return": -0.197855,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.133971,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.098188,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.18545,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.059744,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
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        "relative_strength": -18.891215,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "fair_value": 12.068104,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "energy": 60.957154,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.51,
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        "typical_volume": 128131362.95,
        "trend": 15.178204,
        "fair_value": 12.07932,
        "relative_strength": -13.045479,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.32543,
        "energy": 62.96606,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.41,
        "volume": 103476754,
        "typical_volume": 125767547.3,
        "trend": 15.179537,
        "fair_value": 12.09205,
        "relative_strength": -5.255375,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.649034,
        "energy": 57.586297,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.25,
        "volume": 147649263,
        "typical_volume": 125166179.1,
        "trend": 15.207204,
        "fair_value": 12.110414,
        "relative_strength": -4.355971,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.804138,
        "energy": 32.462484,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}