{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce988cb3-41b6-4ee2-a93c-1ceefed0d6b8", "symbol": "POD", "name": "Podium Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.676, "architecture_energy": 40.529, "architecture_maturity": 98.679, "architecture_confidence": 58.89, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.3, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 17.07, "deceleration": 66.81, "rotation_down": 44.07, "downward_expansion": 67.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.038267, 0.038145, 0.041762, 0.045282 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.041, "trend_reference": 0.051933, "distance_from_trend": -0.210526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.043285, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.782162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.33871, "excess_performance": -0.402415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052785, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266829, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.974433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5315499, "relative_activity": 1.042852, "balance": 0.974433, "dry_up": 0.694517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144465, "annualized_volatility": 0.589189, "from_high_reference": -0.644634, "from_low_reference": 0.242424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.051933, "fair_value_reference": 0.043285, "structural_low": 0.033, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.049248, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.059326, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.617659, "worst_return": -0.452023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.164209, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": -0.489858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.038297, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.56, "worst_return": -0.562717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 1504000, "typical_volume": 5448524.8, "trend": 0.053433, "fair_value": 0.043308, "relative_strength": -35.710571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.100245, "energy": 55.297214, "activity_lines": [ 0.036867, 0.037909, 0.042119, 0.046084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.041, "volume": 5315499, "typical_volume": 5097079.0, "trend": 0.051933, "fair_value": 0.043285, "relative_strength": -32.782162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.675659, "energy": 40.52895, "activity_lines": [ 0.038267, 0.038145, 0.041762, 0.045282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }