{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce9a508d-020c-4944-9c1f-818ae486dd27", "symbol": "GALT", "name": "Galectin Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.75, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.789, "architecture_energy": 18.802, "architecture_maturity": 59.649, "architecture_confidence": 77.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.03, "rotation_up": 25.02, "upward_expansion": 59.34, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 29.33, "downward_expansion": 16.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.463333, 3.658727, 3.26419, 3.100688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.45, "trend_reference": 2.969, "distance_from_trend": 0.162007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.663062, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.293599, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.232143, "excess_performance": 0.044689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.461272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.293727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.232143, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.67381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2337272, "relative_activity": 0.902572, "balance": 2.67381, "dry_up": 1.044006, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251621, "annualized_volatility": 1.030459, "from_high_reference": -0.516129, "from_low_reference": 0.703704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.969, "fair_value_reference": 2.663062, "structural_low": 2.025, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.082803, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.022399, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.216704, "worst_return": -0.232787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.1998, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.285791, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.203463, "worst_return": -0.414634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027688, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168605, "worst_return": -0.388406, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014815, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03719, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.857798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023551, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163327, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.144092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.61, "volume": 327274, "typical_volume": 273040.8, "trend": 1.678833, "fair_value": 2.221178, "relative_strength": -11.726574, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"fair_value": 2.640754, "relative_strength": -16.565393, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.819317, "energy": 48.430504, "activity_lines": [ 4.016, 3.738182, 3.212762, 3.070624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.97, "volume": 1687731, "typical_volume": 2543768.9, "trend": 2.959, "fair_value": 2.650498, "relative_strength": -28.457977, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.767726, "energy": 24.113436, "activity_lines": [ 3.592333, 3.659091, 3.215333, 3.069011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.45, "volume": 2337272, "typical_volume": 2589567.35, "trend": 2.969, "fair_value": 2.663062, "relative_strength": -20.293599, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.788985, "energy": 18.802364, "activity_lines": [ 3.463333, 3.658727, 3.26419, 3.100688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }