{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce9c95a1-9b45-4e91-8458-586b7102508c", "symbol": "PNV", "name": "PolyNovo Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.259, "architecture_energy": 55.147, "architecture_maturity": 11.257, "architecture_confidence": 84.071, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.05, "rotation_up": 10.86, "upward_expansion": 10.71, "deceleration": 39.49, "rotation_down": 65.41, "downward_expansion": 84.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.891667, 0.924545, 0.979, 0.981258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.875, "trend_reference": 0.9895, "distance_from_trend": -0.115715, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.578397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.44564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.681448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043716, "excess_performance": -0.107422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.44564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111105, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043716, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.206643, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10157777, "relative_activity": 1.028338, "balance": 1.206643, "dry_up": 1.157562, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144615, "annualized_volatility": 0.472896, "from_high_reference": -0.474474, "from_low_reference": 0.080247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.9895, "fair_value_reference": 1.578397, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.017972, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.014551, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.336323, "worst_return": -0.348718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.074277, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.088013, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.127946, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.094456, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.6139, "worst_return": -0.404545, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054393, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151751, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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1.028333, "fair_value": 1.592051, "relative_strength": -14.076337, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.324259, "energy": 26.807872, "activity_lines": [ 0.981333, 1.005727, 1.017262, 1.010194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.855, "volume": 18843899, "typical_volume": 10166603.05, "trend": 1.014, "fair_value": 1.587404, "relative_strength": -24.250246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.375827, "energy": 37.879753, "activity_lines": [ 0.940667, 0.971091, 1.003167, 0.999011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.865, "volume": 11807767, "typical_volume": 9881445.4, "trend": 1.001167, "fair_value": 1.583109, "relative_strength": -24.589208, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.359998, "energy": 41.497569, "activity_lines": [ 0.913, 0.944455, 0.990429, 0.989398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.875, "volume": 10157777, "typical_volume": 9877857.45, "trend": 0.9895, "fair_value": 1.578397, "relative_strength": -25.681448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.258767, "energy": 55.146816, "activity_lines": [ 0.891667, 0.924545, 0.979, 0.981258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }