{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce9d1217-fbc5-4bdc-9cb9-ad30e133e60b", "symbol": "MRE", "name": "Martinrea International Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.167, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.434, "architecture_energy": 19.505, "architecture_maturity": 22.674, "architecture_confidence": 58.905, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.25, "rotation_up": 38.26, "upward_expansion": 56.97, "deceleration": 66.17, "rotation_down": 24.85, "downward_expansion": 18.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.289333, 10.200972, 10.277027, 10.168195 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.67, "trend_reference": 10.103238, "distance_from_trend": 0.056097, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.286013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037331, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.748834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083726, "excess_performance": -0.036695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056097, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009638, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083726, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.931742, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 412700, "relative_activity": 1.324221, "balance": 2.931742, "dry_up": 1.001267, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054631, "annualized_volatility": 0.320224, "from_high_reference": -0.08263, "from_low_reference": 0.305006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.103238, "fair_value_reference": 10.286013, "structural_low": 8.672141, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.022583, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014074, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.122633, "worst_return": -0.137457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200075, "worst_return": -0.323703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.127126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039023, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.460754, "worst_return": -0.398607, 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"energy": 16.537514, "activity_lines": [ 10.042253, 10.327582, 10.195919, 10.13619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.95, "volume": 228900, "typical_volume": 349625.0, "trend": 10.104867, "fair_value": 10.349569, "relative_strength": -10.487427, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.395373, "energy": 17.935505, "activity_lines": [ 9.989886, 10.22976, 10.189309, 10.125696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.1, "volume": 303600, "typical_volume": 325200.0, "trend": 10.101742, "fair_value": 10.325394, "relative_strength": -9.291308, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.272862, "energy": 14.799547, "activity_lines": [ 10.018667, 10.173675, 10.200323, 10.125382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.19, "volume": 303000, "typical_volume": 313880.0, "trend": 10.094656, "fair_value": 10.298881, "relative_strength": -8.036673, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.269728, "energy": 9.37877, "activity_lines": [ 10.084667, 10.137913, 10.217467, 10.131076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.67, "volume": 412700, "typical_volume": 311655.0, "trend": 10.103238, "fair_value": 10.286013, "relative_strength": -6.748834, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.434177, "energy": 19.505494, "activity_lines": [ 10.289333, 10.200972, 10.277027, 10.168195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }