{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce9e13fa-69af-44c2-bd34-4a852656376f", "symbol": "IQDY", "name": "FLEXSHARES TRUST INTERNATIONAL QUALITY DIV DYNAMIC IDX", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.804, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.96, "architecture_energy": 40.194, "architecture_maturity": 37.727, "architecture_confidence": 52.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.07, "rotation_up": 40.51, "upward_expansion": 69.39, "deceleration": 72.12, "rotation_down": 27.33, "downward_expansion": 9.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.5203, 42.439151, 41.987128, 41.180949 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.4214, "trend_reference": 40.226333, "distance_from_trend": 0.079427, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.050764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.444935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.077017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106739, "excess_performance": -0.018886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079427, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.444935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03077, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9293, "relative_activity": 0.223813, "balance": 0.402821, "dry_up": 1.612283, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032197, "annualized_volatility": 0.188732, "from_high_reference": -0.011285, "from_low_reference": 0.365583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.226333, "fair_value_reference": 30.050764, "structural_low": 36.017147, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017526, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.006407, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.132019, "worst_return": -0.057796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049461, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032931, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.206786, "worst_return": -0.023819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058557, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187042, "worst_return": 0.010616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 41.7831, "volume": 197374, "typical_volume": 43322.15, "trend": 39.828904, "fair_value": 29.790371, "relative_strength": 4.220267, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.926533, "energy": 30.895527, "activity_lines": [ 42.091567, 42.21902, 41.587801, 40.809567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.18, "volume": 30633, "typical_volume": 43445.3, "trend": 40.016074, "fair_value": 29.915737, "relative_strength": 3.843266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.276994, "energy": 28.436591, "activity_lines": [ 42.099033, 42.22302, 41.741327, 40.961251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.4214, "volume": 9293, "typical_volume": 41521.25, "trend": 40.226333, "fair_value": 30.050764, "relative_strength": 3.077017, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.959752, "energy": 40.193515, "activity_lines": [ 42.5203, 42.439151, 41.987128, 41.180949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }