{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cea21281-5599-4d00-b38b-d09419ec8901", "symbol": "AVIO", "name": "Avio S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.76, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.149, "architecture_energy": 41.785, "architecture_maturity": 8.687, "architecture_confidence": 87.816, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.91, "rotation_up": 14.69, "upward_expansion": 6.07, "deceleration": 45.01, "rotation_down": 61.03, "downward_expansion": 81.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.384001, 30.953273, 32.567101, 33.18227 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.810001, "trend_reference": 33.950169, "distance_from_trend": -0.033584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.40027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.608312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.87608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000662, "excess_performance": -0.17023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032375, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.608312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.040519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4920363, "relative_activity": 1.120581, "balance": 1.040519, "dry_up": 0.912398, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134929, "annualized_volatility": 0.637882, "from_high_reference": -0.494297, "from_low_reference": 0.4151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.950169, "fair_value_reference": 20.40027, "structural_low": 27.620001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.00591, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029275, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.129506, "worst_return": -0.125431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007675, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.056526, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.192737, "worst_return": -0.20884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.056838, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.079564, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.511173, "worst_return": -0.214912, "sufficient": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.081462, "energy": 29.680683, "activity_lines": [ 31.753333, 33.800537, 34.064582, 34.252184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.18, "volume": 3669779, "typical_volume": 4758442.1, "trend": 34.115789, "fair_value": 19.989624, "relative_strength": -27.096312, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.019107, "energy": 54.060081, "activity_lines": [ 30.558, 32.877664, 33.56884, 33.935402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.6, "volume": 3855588, "typical_volume": 4658482.95, "trend": 34.093932, "fair_value": 20.116747, "relative_strength": -28.249127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.765883, "energy": 65.554371, "activity_lines": [ 29.718, 31.884727, 33.046415, 33.579545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.200001, "volume": 3579274, "typical_volume": 4502571.25, "trend": 34.073832, "fair_value": 20.247966, "relative_strength": -26.899092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.625836, "energy": 62.60283, "activity_lines": [ 29.466, 31.028182, 32.617899, 33.263807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.810001, "volume": 4920363, "typical_volume": 4390901.85, "trend": 33.950169, "fair_value": 20.40027, "relative_strength": -19.87608, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.148959, "energy": 41.784735, "activity_lines": [ 30.384001, 30.953273, 32.567101, 33.18227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }