{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cea6e591-0e57-4c36-89ac-341e885a252d", "symbol": "IEQU", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI Europe Quality Factor UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.973, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.493, "architecture_energy": 61.302, "architecture_maturity": 40.064, "architecture_confidence": 78.016, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 60.11, "upward_expansion": 83.2, "deceleration": 56.24, "rotation_down": 23.3, "downward_expansion": 9.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.166667, 12.116582, 11.928248, 11.782572 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.292, "trend_reference": 11.639333, "distance_from_trend": 0.056074, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.542936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165899, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.630826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075416, "excess_performance": -0.095476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056074, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.791741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204261, "relative_activity": 1.719073, "balance": 1.791741, "dry_up": 1.343113, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01776, "annualized_volatility": 0.134678, "from_high_reference": -0.00518, "from_low_reference": 0.197584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.639333, "fair_value_reference": 10.542936, "structural_low": 10.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.002735, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.005096, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.076754, "worst_return": -0.068696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.000174, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.041852, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.061066, "worst_return": -0.073618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042381, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.070475, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.097737, "worst_return": -0.127986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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10.393917, "relative_strength": -7.523342, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.050802, "energy": 59.329041, "activity_lines": [ 11.717467, 11.638509, 11.512457, 11.462959 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.9, "volume": 12983, "typical_volume": 144577.65, "trend": 11.394267, "fair_value": 10.411929, "relative_strength": -9.519373, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.837834, "energy": 65.476475, "activity_lines": [ 11.797733, 11.693127, 11.553752, 11.498159 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.972, "volume": 42735, "typical_volume": 142183.75, "trend": 11.429067, "fair_value": 10.429308, "relative_strength": -5.918761, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.141317, "energy": 72.511367, "activity_lines": [ 11.867467, 11.752945, 11.599581, 11.535432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.294, "volume": 21666, "typical_volume": 137725.7, "trend": 11.473933, "fair_value": 10.45059, "relative_strength": -5.988187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.266711, "energy": 86.339681, "activity_lines": [ 12.029467, 11.866618, 11.673495, 11.591234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.08, "volume": 73112, "typical_volume": 118723.1, "trend": 11.512733, "fair_value": 10.468615, "relative_strength": -7.007673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.04979, "energy": 79.740687, "activity_lines": [ 12.078933, 11.928255, 11.723238, 11.630335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.098, "volume": 161295, "typical_volume": 118762.45, "trend": 11.5476, "fair_value": 10.4865, "relative_strength": -5.345554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.163198, "energy": 79.812475, "activity_lines": [ 12.1024, 11.982145, 11.773067, 11.668095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.132, "volume": 140568, "typical_volume": 121139.45, "trend": 11.582133, "fair_value": 10.504141, "relative_strength": -4.749648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.804665, "energy": 76.711221, "activity_lines": [ 12.123467, 12.030873, 11.82479, 11.705798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.092, "volume": 132233, "typical_volume": 117356.45, "trend": 11.611867, "fair_value": 10.52309, "relative_strength": -5.573018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.6935, "energy": 54.680833, "activity_lines": [ 12.115733, 12.058691, 11.868981, 11.738692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.292, "volume": 204261, "typical_volume": 118820.4, "trend": 11.639333, "fair_value": 10.542936, "relative_strength": -6.630826, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.492738, "energy": 61.302056, "activity_lines": [ 12.166667, 12.116582, 11.928248, 11.782572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }