{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cea8868f-239c-4849-9c43-11d65bc0e0fe",
    "symbol": "NAUT",
    "name": "Nautilus Biotechnology Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -87.646,
    "architecture_energy": 93.291,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.567,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 9.38,
        "rotation_up": 8.92,
        "upward_expansion": 21.84,
        "deceleration": 37.05,
        "rotation_down": 86.47,
        "downward_expansion": 99.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.256567,
        1.548982,
        1.966786,
        2.178271
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.9001,
    "trend_reference": 2.323403,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.612594,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 2.111349,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.573685,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -58.671818,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.556601,
    "excess_performance": -0.744055,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.612594,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024258,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.573685,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.782172,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.586718,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.999448,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.556601,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.292958,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5917541,
      "relative_activity": 1.819193,
      "balance": 0.292958,
      "dry_up": 1.374895,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.443455,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.088248,
      "from_high_reference": -0.791165,
      "from_low_reference": 0.451774
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.323403,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.111349,
      "structural_low": 0.8411,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": -0.029126,
        "positive_rate": 0.473684,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.526316,
        "median_excess_return": -0.087236,
        "regime_survival": 0.736842,
        "best_return": 0.329032,
        "worst_return": -0.357143,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.075472,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.151192,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 2.308824,
        "worst_return": -0.425385,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.865003,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.650283,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 2.012048,
        "worst_return": -0.666518,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 1.051613,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.563542,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 2.060606,
        "worst_return": -0.626415,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.089744,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.062069,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.068729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.160839,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.658795,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.238563,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.140372,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.565574,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029126,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.304348,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.253731,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.023121,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.07871,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 2.157906,
        "relative_strength": -12.208053,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -41.013914,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 3190632,
        "typical_volume": 2675630.4,
        "trend": 2.402833,
        "fair_value": 2.148226,
        "relative_strength": -16.321461,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -45.270601,
        "energy": 67.092565,
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          2.045455,
          2.336833,
          2.409946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.69,
        "volume": 2294683,
        "typical_volume": 2742911.9,
        "trend": 2.393167,
        "fair_value": 2.13938,
        "relative_strength": -18.001715,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.59804,
        "energy": 78.24358,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.769333,
          1.951636,
          2.256571,
          2.363957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.977,
        "volume": 6486386,
        "typical_volume": 3019431.1,
        "trend": 2.362067,
        "fair_value": 2.125194,
        "relative_strength": -52.865888,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -90.775712,
        "energy": 89.012235,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.491667,
          1.743091,
          2.112119,
          2.272591
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.9001,
        "volume": 5917541,
        "typical_volume": 3252837.7,
        "trend": 2.323403,
        "fair_value": 2.111349,
        "relative_strength": -58.671818,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -87.646329,
        "energy": 93.290638,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.256567,
          1.548982,
          1.966786,
          2.178271
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}