{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ceaa8f4c-300e-4504-96d9-0412abe83f33", "symbol": "DOTZ3", "name": "Dotz S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 78.865, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.167, "architecture_energy": 79.32, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.623, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.53, "rotation_up": 72.55, "upward_expansion": 88.18, "deceleration": 47.88, "rotation_down": 10.25, "downward_expansion": 17.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.190667, 4.832182, 4.454905, 4.178323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.91, "trend_reference": 3.898667, "distance_from_trend": 0.515903, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.161731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040854, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.242034, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.769461, "excess_performance": 0.826509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.515903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040854, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.500077, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05242, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.602845, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.769461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.276007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 356200, "relative_activity": 2.103771, "balance": 3.276007, "dry_up": 2.52045, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117532, "annualized_volatility": 1.062268, "from_high_reference": -0.369936, "from_low_reference": 1.230189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.898667, "fair_value_reference": 6.161731, "structural_low": 2.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.101738, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.115381, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.052703, "worst_return": -0.313358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.20592, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.26001, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.012547, "worst_return": -0.559301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.378519, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.474699, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.186951, "worst_return": -0.545568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.192859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.27035, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129838, "worst_return": -0.515556, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.345811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075362, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"Established", "return": -0.216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.31016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.243665, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.2, "volume": 149240, "typical_volume": 138166.5, "trend": 10.466667, "fair_value": 37.657759, "relative_strength": -13.402534, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.507333, 4.316545, 3.993857, 3.869806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.92, "volume": 367400, "typical_volume": 103765.0, "trend": 3.862, "fair_value": 6.376218, "relative_strength": -34.261972, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.130075, "energy": 35.40573, "activity_lines": [ 4.305333, 4.286, 4.011952, 3.868237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.88, "volume": 288300, "typical_volume": 116250.0, "trend": 3.817, "fair_value": 6.316474, "relative_strength": -32.799333, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.684827, "energy": 21.946068, "activity_lines": [ 4.092667, 4.238727, 4.022, 3.869398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.77, "volume": 554500, "typical_volume": 142120.0, "trend": 3.809333, "fair_value": 6.261154, "relative_strength": -17.044203, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.124967, "energy": 27.869859, "activity_lines": [ 4.244667, 4.339818, 4.11281, 3.930882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.58, "volume": 508000, "typical_volume": 159195.0, "trend": 3.845333, "fair_value": 6.21359, "relative_strength": -4.3884, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.784537, "energy": 45.92045, "activity_lines": [ 4.690667, 4.572727, 4.271571, 4.045118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.91, "volume": 356200, "typical_volume": 169315.0, "trend": 3.898667, "fair_value": 6.161731, "relative_strength": 5.242034, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.167292, "energy": 79.319893, "activity_lines": [ 5.190667, 4.832182, 4.454905, 4.178323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }