{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ceb40ec4-74f0-45b9-bb10-4f48c8b6e1d9", "symbol": "SMBC", "name": "Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.927, "architecture_energy": 54.788, "architecture_maturity": 53.923, "architecture_confidence": 86.049, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 60.06, "upward_expansion": 81.96, "deceleration": 63.31, "rotation_down": 20.42, "downward_expansion": 8.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.172, 76.308, 73.538172, 71.155142 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.15, "trend_reference": 68.177887, "distance_from_trend": 0.131599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.418386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.444259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.227657, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.186861, "excess_performance": -0.000593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.444259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07987, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082277, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186861, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.909972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 447322, "relative_activity": 0.926716, "balance": 1.909972, "dry_up": 0.959133, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049299, "annualized_volatility": 0.171465, "from_high_reference": -0.033934, "from_low_reference": 0.64068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.177887, "fair_value_reference": 53.418386, "structural_low": 59.476806, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.009333, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.029837, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.161157, "worst_return": -0.171816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016491, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004332, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.322406, "worst_return": -0.137563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043022, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.281452, "worst_return": -0.211827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 77.63, "volume": 482859, "typical_volume": 466138.7, "trend": 66.95239, "fair_value": 52.993836, "relative_strength": 15.896954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.652818, "energy": 63.452059, "activity_lines": [ 76.666667, 75.082182, 72.12607, 69.863965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.41, "volume": 458661, "typical_volume": 474835.0, "trend": 67.594365, "fair_value": 53.200431, "relative_strength": 14.509007, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.441163, "energy": 57.784847, "activity_lines": [ 76.984667, 75.795273, 72.88248, 70.53865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.15, "volume": 447322, "typical_volume": 482696.0, "trend": 68.177887, "fair_value": 53.418386, "relative_strength": 8.227657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.926766, "energy": 54.787935, "activity_lines": [ 77.172, 76.308, 73.538172, 71.155142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }