{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cebe32b0-baeb-4b92-bd9b-42fe904d4179", "symbol": "FPI", "name": "Farmland Partners Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "stage_color": "red", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "stage_age_weeks": 4, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_score": 43.717, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 77.766, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_color": "red", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.638, "architecture_energy": 76.011, "architecture_maturity": 26.036, "architecture_confidence": 95.937, "architecture_age_weeks": 4, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.638, "energy": 76.011, "maturity": 26.036, "confidence": 95.937, "confirmation": 95.774, "age_weeks": 4, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Activity Lines are bearishly ordered below the 30-week Trend Line, their slopes are negative and price is accepted below the fan. Repair requires contraction and an upward fast/slow rotation\u2014not merely one strong week." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.02, "rotation_up": 24.64, "upward_expansion": 16.68, "deceleration": 42.03, "rotation_down": 62.88, "downward_expansion": 92.35 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 9.546, "10": 9.656734, "20": 10.01711, "30": 10.384498 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": -0.635501, "10": -0.773767, "20": -1.119768, "30": -0.799794 }, "bullish_order": 0.0, "bearish_order": 1.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.187333, "fan_width_change_4": 0.232509, "fan_width_percentile": 0.942308, "fast_slow_gap_atr": -1.563711, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.255147, "price_acceptance": -0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": -0.511292, "accepted_above": 0.0, "accepted_below": 0.833333, "crossing_density": 0.125 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price has hard-broken the prior advancing structure.", "body": "Price is decisively below the 30-week average with weak relative strength and negative medium-horizon momentum. Those hard contradictions establish a fresh Stage 4 before the slower 30-week average itself has had time to turn down.", "phase": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 44/100." }, "latest_close": 9.35, "sma_30": 10.744279, "distance_from_sma_30": -0.129769, "sma_30_slope": 0.007214, "fair_value": 10.017772, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066659, "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.127575, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -17.690658, "mansfield_rs_change_13": -8.219597, "range_position_52": 0.074086, "returns": { "13": -0.11885, "26": -0.188217, "52": -0.082858 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.273538, "52": -0.297693 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 59.59, "2": 6.9, "3": 44.5, "4": 93.1 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": false, "value": -0.129769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.007214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066659, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": false, "value": -0.127575, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": false, "value": -0.176907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": false, "value": -0.082196, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188217, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2172234, "ratio_20": 1.146303, "up_down_ratio_13": 0.486493, "dry_up_ratio": 1.051994, "accumulation_weeks": 2, "distribution_weeks": 5 }, "base": { "high_26": 13.12004, "low_26": 9.21, "depth": 0.29802, "compression": 0.302598, "breakout_distance": -0.28735 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.040999, "annualized_volatility": 0.280221, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.28735, 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six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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