{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cebf5803-f14c-478b-bc7e-a0b6a31e01ed", "symbol": "000017", "name": "Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.935, "architecture_energy": 12.362, "architecture_maturity": 86.667, "architecture_confidence": 49.707, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.53, "rotation_up": 30.67, "upward_expansion": 25.97, "deceleration": 50.12, "rotation_down": 20.52, "downward_expansion": 47.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.966, 5.795273, 5.79519, 6.065591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.18, "trend_reference": 6.509333, "distance_from_trend": -0.050594, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.491795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.680121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180371, "excess_performance": -0.187771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050594, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048029, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131703, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43374760, "relative_activity": 1.13253, "balance": 0.691545, "dry_up": 1.658073, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090366, "annualized_volatility": 0.38846, "from_high_reference": -0.330444, "from_low_reference": 0.263804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.509333, "fair_value_reference": 6.491795, "structural_low": 4.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034024, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020854, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.270115, "worst_return": -0.156006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011291, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.054455, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.983683, "worst_return": -0.054602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.118084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.353135, "worst_return": -0.042159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.432343, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.420655, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.434091, "worst_return": 0.075885, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048474, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102076, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074344, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035881, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.67, "volume": 20957321, "typical_volume": 29177602.3, "trend": 4.562333, "fair_value": 3.618013, "relative_strength": 7.010673, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.05664, "energy": 32.916162, "activity_lines": [ 5.658667, 5.531273, 5.811905, 6.187333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.8, "volume": 76189991, "typical_volume": 37128687.9, "trend": 6.637, "fair_value": 6.472628, "relative_strength": -15.719174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.551655, "energy": 27.183888, "activity_lines": [ 5.741333, 5.581273, 5.77881, 6.127699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.06, "volume": 56681022, "typical_volume": 38214522.8, "trend": 6.565667, "fair_value": 6.481859, "relative_strength": -10.22424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.394831, "energy": 21.845138, "activity_lines": [ 5.867333, 5.680545, 5.778714, 6.090473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.18, "volume": 43374760, "typical_volume": 38299002.75, "trend": 6.509333, "fair_value": 6.491795, "relative_strength": -12.680121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.935052, "energy": 12.361925, "activity_lines": [ 5.966, 5.795273, 5.79519, 6.065591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }