{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cec75bf3-b814-4e2d-856b-1af166e7d640", "symbol": "5356", "name": "Sirtec International Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 57.942, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.599, "architecture_energy": 18.241, "architecture_maturity": 23.488, "architecture_confidence": 77.143, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.21, "rotation_up": 29.21, "upward_expansion": 49.23, "deceleration": 80.37, "rotation_down": 35.37, "downward_expansion": 29.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.966666, 25.125856, 25.130974, 24.821017 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.9, "trend_reference": 24.468956, "distance_from_trend": 0.058484, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.769269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005073, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.994731, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107296, "excess_performance": -0.334076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.757238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 628949, "relative_activity": 0.911702, "balance": 2.757238, "dry_up": 0.755963, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041847, "annualized_volatility": 0.151837, "from_high_reference": -0.069871, "from_low_reference": 0.15544 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.468956, "fair_value_reference": 25.769269, "structural_low": 22.462119, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005025, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.028878, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.091463, "worst_return": -0.064607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089641, "worst_return": -0.146067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.558565, "worst_return": -0.189607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.123352, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.543134, "worst_return": -0.233359, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028689, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007452, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074293, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", 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"typical_volume": 674372.95, "trend": 24.321891, "fair_value": 25.749467, "relative_strength": -25.090043, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.13785, "energy": 15.439645, "activity_lines": [ 24.793573, 25.144188, 25.033751, 24.70768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 510100, "typical_volume": 684702.45, "trend": 24.371377, "fair_value": 25.751685, "relative_strength": -25.207583, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.553152, "energy": 18.036338, "activity_lines": [ 24.613333, 25.009758, 25.021943, 24.722397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.9, "volume": 628949, "typical_volume": 689862.3, "trend": 24.468956, "fair_value": 25.769269, "relative_strength": -22.994731, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.59931, "energy": 18.241003, "activity_lines": [ 24.966666, 25.125856, 25.130974, 24.821017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }