{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cecc35b0-6574-49cb-91f3-ebeeb9456ecb", "symbol": "AVA", "name": "AVA Risk Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.452, "architecture_energy": 29.294, "architecture_maturity": 82.457, "architecture_confidence": 85.328, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.83, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 30.52, "downward_expansion": 64.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.042133, 0.040345, 0.04459, 0.04746 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.046, "trend_reference": 0.052167, "distance_from_trend": -0.118211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.108905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.577612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.864216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233333, "excess_performance": -0.297039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.577612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816247, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1139718, "relative_activity": 1.731432, "balance": 0.816247, "dry_up": 1.235932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125418, "annualized_volatility": 0.643389, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.314286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.052167, "fair_value_reference": 0.108905, "structural_low": 0.035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.452381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.017135, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.35, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.014601, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.444446, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.105006, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.079132, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.195119, "worst_return": -0.3625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.052148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.038, "volume": 487809, "typical_volume": 723347.85, "trend": 0.056467, "fair_value": 0.112976, "relative_strength": -41.513988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.903116, "energy": 87.635916, "activity_lines": [ 0.036867, 0.041691, 0.047476, 0.05089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.038, "volume": 661967, "typical_volume": 708719.05, "trend": 0.055533, "fair_value": 0.111982, "relative_strength": -40.528711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.807437, "energy": 82.131827, "activity_lines": [ 0.037133, 0.0402, 0.0463, 0.049699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.044, "volume": 895938, "typical_volume": 633505.9, "trend": 0.054733, "fair_value": 0.110931, "relative_strength": -30.016399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.950844, "energy": 51.998012, "activity_lines": [ 0.039533, 0.040182, 0.045767, 0.048955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.039, "volume": 556594, "typical_volume": 642675.3, "trend": 0.053433, "fair_value": 0.109911, "relative_strength": -38.479517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.894039, "energy": 44.51622, "activity_lines": [ 0.0398, 0.039436, 0.04481, 0.04794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.046, "volume": 1139718, "typical_volume": 658251.75, "trend": 0.052167, "fair_value": 0.108905, "relative_strength": -28.864216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.451938, "energy": 29.293953, "activity_lines": [ 0.042133, 0.040345, 0.04459, 0.04746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }