{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cecdfc4e-69ca-4026-97e1-3c4083e94f1c", "symbol": "002506", "name": "GCL System Integration Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.877, "architecture_energy": 79.774, "architecture_maturity": 26.427, "architecture_confidence": 93.719, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 19.18, "deceleration": 39.14, "rotation_down": 65.02, "downward_expansion": 92.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.538667, 2.68, 3.14519, 3.527419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.68, "trend_reference": 3.808, "distance_from_trend": -0.296218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.765, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030741, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.123573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18541, "excess_performance": -0.19281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.296218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030741, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.639438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1251303873, "relative_activity": 0.715476, "balance": 0.858968, "dry_up": 0.689548, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144948, "annualized_volatility": 0.782271, "from_high_reference": -0.578616, "from_low_reference": 0.180617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.808, "fair_value_reference": 2.765, "structural_low": 2.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.01634, "positive_rate": 0.290323, "directional_follow_through": 0.709677, "median_excess_return": 0.004221, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.318386, "worst_return": -0.132576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.023346, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023322, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.607273, "worst_return": -0.234568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021686, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014446, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.413793, "worst_return": -0.231061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.7, "volume": 1272257648, "typical_volume": 2634908467.75, "trend": 3.847, "fair_value": 2.776795, "relative_strength": -26.154662, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.286334, "energy": 79.223822, "activity_lines": [ 2.926667, 3.183636, 3.700952, 3.874344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.34, "volume": 1088768761, "typical_volume": 2415427717.85, "trend": 3.833333, "fair_value": 2.773013, "relative_strength": -29.161163, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.594191, "energy": 92.1697, "activity_lines": [ 2.708, 2.976182, 3.527667, 3.777118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.38, "volume": 1328795780, "typical_volume": 2206082198.65, "trend": 3.825, "fair_value": 2.769744, "relative_strength": -27.848924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.714247, "energy": 91.09084, "activity_lines": [ 2.558, 2.814, 3.370905, 3.683355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.54, "volume": 1154968176, "typical_volume": 1924373389.5, "trend": 3.812, "fair_value": 2.766859, "relative_strength": -21.515392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.799869, "energy": 85.847301, "activity_lines": [ 2.507333, 2.722545, 3.244524, 3.600452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.68, "volume": 1251303873, "typical_volume": 1748912094.95, "trend": 3.808, "fair_value": 2.765, "relative_strength": -21.123573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.876832, "energy": 79.773893, "activity_lines": [ 2.538667, 2.68, 3.14519, 3.527419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }