{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cece854f-bd7d-42fb-8d32-97fbefb4f34c", "symbol": "600197", "name": "Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.732, "architecture_energy": 36.574, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.413, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.83, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 36.37, "downward_expansion": 65.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.296, 10.182545, 10.766, 11.24157 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.34, "trend_reference": 11.942333, "distance_from_trend": -0.134173, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.186899, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.448622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.258781, "excess_performance": -0.215578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102687, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.361212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001901, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258781, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.558333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37889923, "relative_activity": 1.674495, "balance": 1.558333, "dry_up": 1.696883, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077369, "annualized_volatility": 0.312379, "from_high_reference": -0.398837, "from_low_reference": 0.09418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.942333, "fair_value_reference": 16.186899, "structural_low": 9.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.013754, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.016718, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.190273, "worst_return": -0.272171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.022481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062399, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.047681, "worst_return": -0.184167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.020103, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.143393, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.072616, "worst_return": -0.29263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-72.6687, "energy": 89.466182, "activity_lines": [ 9.884, 10.541091, 11.226714, 11.744688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.21, "volume": 32023607, "typical_volume": 19223482.75, "trend": 12.314, "fair_value": 16.444419, "relative_strength": -20.823963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.102692, "energy": 75.316135, "activity_lines": [ 9.958667, 10.381636, 11.082143, 11.600903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.03, "volume": 26534442, "typical_volume": 19437908.1, "trend": 12.176667, "fair_value": 16.355142, "relative_strength": -22.57189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.045178, "energy": 59.183615, "activity_lines": [ 9.994667, 10.225273, 10.935762, 11.453548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.61, "volume": 57138104, "typical_volume": 21569271.8, "trend": 12.059, "fair_value": 16.273471, "relative_strength": -17.833155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.326616, "energy": 44.640223, "activity_lines": [ 10.226667, 10.213636, 10.858238, 11.352473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.34, "volume": 37889923, "typical_volume": 22627669.55, "trend": 11.942333, "fair_value": 16.186899, "relative_strength": -21.448622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.731829, "energy": 36.574184, "activity_lines": [ 10.296, 10.182545, 10.766, 11.24157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }