{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ced1e5ad-737c-4475-8582-0a871b5b19f8", "symbol": "002679", "name": "Fujian Jinsen Forestry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.945, "architecture_energy": 44.273, "architecture_maturity": 95.363, "architecture_confidence": 68.074, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.02, "rotation_up": 26.91, "upward_expansion": 18.89, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 45.95, "downward_expansion": 71.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.364143, 8.29858, 8.881274, 9.453598 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.77, "trend_reference": 10.233885, "distance_from_trend": -0.143043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.885248, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.470275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236728, "excess_performance": -0.244127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112819, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236728, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14667820, "relative_activity": 0.85572, "balance": 0.39372, "dry_up": 1.060871, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085592, "annualized_volatility": 0.297157, "from_high_reference": -0.481678, "from_low_reference": 0.193197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.233885, "fair_value_reference": 9.885248, "structural_low": 7.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.011016, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.01924, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.228181, "worst_return": -0.16452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.078911, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.031186, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.449635, "worst_return": -0.258377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006997, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.043934, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.216058, "worst_return": -0.289079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.197523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013597, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038366, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129187, "active": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.914682, "energy": 88.824344, "activity_lines": [ 8.17169, 8.64942, 9.453208, 10.03688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.1, "volume": 19397771, "typical_volume": 18223139.35, "trend": 10.621885, "fair_value": 9.985838, "relative_strength": -26.795924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.031493, "energy": 78.283318, "activity_lines": [ 8.111253, 8.452574, 9.262939, 9.863554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.83, "volume": 21718927, "typical_volume": 17634668.7, "trend": 10.468885, "fair_value": 9.952579, "relative_strength": -29.053786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.917057, "energy": 67.059103, "activity_lines": [ 8.010108, 8.261546, 9.067622, 9.683432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.47, "volume": 16952653, "typical_volume": 17374860.85, "trend": 10.333552, "fair_value": 9.916298, "relative_strength": -21.622346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.950609, "energy": 58.538111, "activity_lines": [ 8.153713, 8.236881, 8.953495, 9.554472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.77, "volume": 14667820, "typical_volume": 17140908.35, "trend": 10.233885, "fair_value": 9.885248, "relative_strength": -22.470275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.945222, "energy": 44.273399, "activity_lines": [ 8.364143, 8.29858, 8.881274, 9.453598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }