{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ced909b0-6826-4fc3-9d2c-cdabea99c3c2", "symbol": "TBT", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTSH 20YRS NEW", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.336, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.706, "architecture_energy": 75.305, "architecture_maturity": 9.87, "architecture_confidence": 65.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.58, "rotation_up": 79.73, "upward_expansion": 94.79, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 8.76, "downward_expansion": 16.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.608, 36.716589, 36.188314, 35.791806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 37.83, "trend_reference": 35.244176, "distance_from_trend": 0.073369, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.299977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136037, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.514881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098023, "excess_performance": -0.027602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02237, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071541, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.764461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1413145, "relative_activity": 0.612285, "balance": 0.764461, "dry_up": 0.633732, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037502, "annualized_volatility": 0.191733, "from_high_reference": -0.025, "from_low_reference": 0.210537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.244176, "fair_value_reference": 33.299977, "structural_low": 32.064429, "invalidation": "A 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advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.269774, "energy": 20.492408, "activity_lines": [ 35.330011, 35.438108, 35.412608, 35.135383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.33, "volume": 1509778, "typical_volume": 2490733.15, "trend": 34.89117, "fair_value": 33.13603, "relative_strength": -3.226858, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.76585, "energy": 27.726034, "activity_lines": [ 35.724326, 35.571659, 35.522873, 35.232421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.4, "volume": 1192958, "typical_volume": 2386359.6, "trend": 34.99737, "fair_value": 33.196651, "relative_strength": 0.444348, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.680782, "energy": 59.80937, "activity_lines": [ 36.408, 35.878146, 35.714967, 35.394281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.45, "volume": 1734690, "typical_volume": 2369645.9, "trend": 35.120988, "fair_value": 33.25279, "relative_strength": 2.313969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.999383, "energy": 76.49531, "activity_lines": [ 37.254667, 36.371702, 35.988999, 35.617031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.83, "volume": 1413145, "typical_volume": 2307983.8, "trend": 35.244176, "fair_value": 33.299977, "relative_strength": -2.514881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.706376, "energy": 75.304828, "activity_lines": [ 37.608, 36.716589, 36.188314, 35.791806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }