{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ced9cdef-4205-49be-afb7-72dfed5c5de2", "symbol": "600848", "name": "Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.156, "architecture_energy": 26.64, "architecture_maturity": 96.696, "architecture_confidence": 74.373, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.67, "rotation_up": 36.3, "upward_expansion": 22.71, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 21.97, "downward_expansion": 56.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.488667, 8.176293, 8.347853, 8.806262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.66, "trend_reference": 9.581743, "distance_from_trend": -0.096198, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.945, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.154514, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.262351, "excess_performance": -0.219147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096198, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11496, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129211, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02125, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.296925, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56833180, "relative_activity": 1.118595, "balance": 1.296925, "dry_up": 1.15661, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073842, "annualized_volatility": 0.288936, "from_high_reference": -0.389711, "from_low_reference": 0.187331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.581743, "fair_value_reference": 9.945, "structural_low": 7.29367, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.00412, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": 0.001508, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.196833, "worst_return": -0.089581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.046635, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.043627, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.165434, "worst_return": -0.13851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024843, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050737, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084485, "worst_return": -0.150874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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54.308342, "activity_lines": [ 7.897808, 7.905649, 8.342922, 8.925326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.96, "volume": 65748638, "typical_volume": 50142943.9, "trend": 9.683076, "fair_value": 9.964406, "relative_strength": -8.943172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.464293, "energy": 25.241063, "activity_lines": [ 8.298457, 8.070517, 8.355768, 8.872267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.66, "volume": 56833180, "typical_volume": 50807632.85, "trend": 9.581743, "fair_value": 9.945, "relative_strength": -14.154514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.156476, "energy": 26.640498, "activity_lines": [ 8.488667, 8.176293, 8.347853, 8.806262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }