{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ceda6fa4-fb47-4c41-a13c-68bd5d9b72e4",
    "symbol": "00663L",
    "name": "Cathay TAIEX Daily Leveraged 2X ETF",
    "exchange": "TAI",
    "country": "TW",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TWII",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 74.415,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 30.803,
    "architecture_energy": 24.308,
    "architecture_maturity": 76.592,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.727,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.89,
        "rotation_up": 22.23,
        "upward_expansion": 55.63,
        "deceleration": 91.16,
        "rotation_down": 32.92,
        "downward_expansion": 19.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        96.056666,
        99.747273,
        97.885477,
        90.774087
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 96.599998,
    "trend_reference": 80.843334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.194904,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 131.919341,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267734,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 19.048801,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.658369,
    "excess_performance": 0.279057,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.194904,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.310505,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.267734,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035253,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.190488,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130738,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.658369,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.529213,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 41689125,
      "relative_activity": 0.819549,
      "balance": 0.529213,
      "dry_up": 1.23902,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.118052,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.589637,
      "from_high_reference": -0.161094,
      "from_low_reference": 2.157895
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 80.843334,
      "fair_value_reference": 131.919341,
      "structural_low": 54.349998,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.024131,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005946,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.431065,
        "worst_return": -0.111971,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.204031,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.113249,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.968586,
        "worst_return": -0.128185,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.180288,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.104151,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.865803,
        "worst_return": -0.275478,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.047801,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017277,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.782212,
        "worst_return": -0.824302,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.516347,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.202172,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.042004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.059461,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.054135,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.818651,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003531,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.350585,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020838,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.095013,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.288827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.279232,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.131208,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006774,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-04",
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        "typical_volume": 266300.0,
        "trend": 111.67,
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        "relative_strength": 13.741119,
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 51901731.05,
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        "fair_value": 132.149469,
        "relative_strength": 21.019568,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 35.101512,
        "energy": 23.601633,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 96.599998,
        "volume": 41689125,
        "typical_volume": 50868349.25,
        "trend": 80.843334,
        "fair_value": 131.919341,
        "relative_strength": 19.048801,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}