{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cedb24fa-bb32-4c82-b458-313431c10f40", "symbol": "XSOP", "name": "WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises ESG Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.301, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.64, "architecture_energy": 18.427, "architecture_maturity": 61.504, "architecture_confidence": 94.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.11, "rotation_up": 15.92, "upward_expansion": 40.94, "deceleration": 87.76, "rotation_down": 43.3, "downward_expansion": 34.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.5645, 24.081636, 24.174619, 23.703726 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.76, "trend_reference": 23.079417, "distance_from_trend": 0.029489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.166017, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.7368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102296, "excess_performance": 0.051061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007368, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.030105, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9486, "relative_activity": 1.100183, "balance": 1.030105, "dry_up": 0.799013, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057409, "annualized_volatility": 0.238053, "from_high_reference": -0.120251, "from_low_reference": 0.322645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.079417, "fair_value_reference": 18.166017, "structural_low": 19.898, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020296, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.018788, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.122961, "worst_return": -0.039088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005869, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000539, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.228025, "worst_return": -0.018382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037391, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.237597, "worst_return": -0.015393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033026, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040414, "worst_return": 0.025638, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012916, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045078, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056383, "active": false }, { "regime": 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24.067071, 23.418516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.5825, "volume": 7049, "typical_volume": 9172.0, "trend": 22.693917, "fair_value": 17.962037, "relative_strength": 8.932576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.743717, "energy": 46.418787, "activity_lines": [ 25.084833, 24.992409, 24.188548, 23.549903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.21, "volume": 7055, "typical_volume": 9000.75, "trend": 22.79975, "fair_value": 18.012915, "relative_strength": 1.694923, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.18391, "energy": 19.655344, "activity_lines": [ 24.4175, 24.696045, 24.171798, 23.583199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.555, "volume": 4309, "typical_volume": 8719.35, "trend": 22.908333, "fair_value": 18.062037, "relative_strength": 1.710581, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.656871, "energy": 21.292652, "activity_lines": [ 23.982333, 24.484091, 24.186631, 23.631925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.25, "volume": 6707, "typical_volume": 8553.8, "trend": 22.98875, "fair_value": 18.110985, "relative_strength": -0.95971, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.117273, "energy": 19.172531, "activity_lines": [ 23.622833, 24.227182, 24.161298, 23.653968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.76, "volume": 9486, "typical_volume": 8622.2, "trend": 23.079417, "fair_value": 18.166017, "relative_strength": 0.7368, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.640106, "energy": 18.427404, "activity_lines": [ 23.5645, 24.081636, 24.174619, 23.703726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }