{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cedb6ce9-7fb9-4a43-9442-43879934673f", "symbol": "XBJL", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated 9 Buffer ETF - July", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.895, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.887, "architecture_energy": 73.423, "architecture_maturity": 74.534, "architecture_confidence": 61.902, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 61.56, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.46, "rotation_down": 25.51, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.265807, 40.123602, 39.910969, 39.574805 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.8133, "trend_reference": 39.1707, "distance_from_trend": 0.041934, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.519716, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.506209, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.059392, "excess_performance": -0.066233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003362, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006182, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059392, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.650932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53114, "relative_activity": 1.691079, "balance": 1.650932, "dry_up": 0.921316, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006635, "annualized_volatility": 0.056081, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.116338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.1707, "fair_value_reference": 34.519716, "structural_low": 37.33, "invalidation": "A 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40.1803, "volume": 29054, "typical_volume": 30601.45, "trend": 38.921563, "fair_value": 34.236099, "relative_strength": -5.34994, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.853819, "energy": 93.926124, "activity_lines": [ 40.004947, 39.922313, 39.581829, 39.276079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.9121, "volume": 17180, "typical_volume": 30258.65, "trend": 38.98077, "fair_value": 34.304896, "relative_strength": -4.349305, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.319295, "energy": 85.639569, "activity_lines": [ 39.98654, 39.93412, 39.651392, 39.339985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.7987, "volume": 23238, "typical_volume": 30258.5, "trend": 39.029393, "fair_value": 34.372003, "relative_strength": -3.921283, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.132698, "energy": 61.596675, "activity_lines": [ 39.928253, 39.919635, 39.703718, 39.392754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.13, "volume": 22216, "typical_volume": 29800.85, "trend": 39.092127, "fair_value": 34.443477, "relative_strength": -4.003415, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.6096, "energy": 66.031296, "activity_lines": [ 39.988147, 39.963227, 39.779792, 39.463761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.8133, "volume": 53114, "typical_volume": 31408.35, "trend": 39.1707, "fair_value": 34.519716, "relative_strength": -5.506209, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.887017, "energy": 73.422561, "activity_lines": [ 40.265807, 40.123602, 39.910969, 39.574805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }