{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cedc3405-b7dd-4c6b-a2f5-0b91b23d813a", "symbol": "002099", "name": "Zhejiang Hisoar Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.828, "architecture_energy": 41.958, "architecture_maturity": 59.246, "architecture_confidence": 74.615, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.54, "rotation_up": 26.63, "upward_expansion": 13.62, "deceleration": 63.65, "rotation_down": 42.81, "downward_expansion": 72.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.262, 5.249091, 5.488952, 5.856516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.36, "trend_reference": 6.285, "distance_from_trend": -0.147176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.040192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.147116, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.153239, "excess_performance": -0.160638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112611, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.386966, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57221790, "relative_activity": 0.598536, "balance": 0.386966, "dry_up": 1.059808, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081085, "annualized_volatility": 0.449438, "from_high_reference": -0.410341, "from_low_reference": 0.100616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.285, "fair_value_reference": 6.040192, "structural_low": 4.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.014363, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011719, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.270541, "worst_return": -0.387097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.039773, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.034247, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.343284, "worst_return": -0.350416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.067217, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.184314, "worst_return": -0.127424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042017, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.196667, "active": false }, { 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"down", "direction": -65.77769, "energy": 60.030068, "activity_lines": [ 5.265333, 5.349818, 5.829476, 6.151075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.0, "volume": 149027501, "typical_volume": 111045801.9, "trend": 6.364, "fair_value": 6.094872, "relative_strength": -20.193143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.805952, "energy": 56.239642, "activity_lines": [ 5.182, 5.265273, 5.705095, 6.061032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.03, "volume": 106022625, "typical_volume": 101946009.35, "trend": 6.331667, "fair_value": 6.073269, "relative_strength": -19.421523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.542232, "energy": 55.415261, "activity_lines": [ 5.133333, 5.206182, 5.598333, 5.974968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.45, "volume": 93010821, "typical_volume": 98540463.05, "trend": 6.314333, "fair_value": 6.056154, "relative_strength": -10.876772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.106391, "energy": 50.436157, "activity_lines": [ 5.221333, 5.235091, 5.543333, 5.918086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.36, "volume": 57221790, "typical_volume": 95602853.25, "trend": 6.285, "fair_value": 6.040192, "relative_strength": -16.147116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.8283, "energy": 41.957982, "activity_lines": [ 5.262, 5.249091, 5.488952, 5.856516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }