{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cee22935-637b-4ac2-8a4f-8fece73b5802", "symbol": "PIM", "name": "Putnam Master Intermediate Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.475, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.539, "architecture_energy": 34.221, "architecture_maturity": 2.905, "architecture_confidence": 94.644, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.13, "rotation_up": 18.5, "upward_expansion": 8.03, "deceleration": 40.52, "rotation_down": 49.08, "downward_expansion": 76.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.126875, 3.138238, 3.151687, 3.160926 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.14, "trend_reference": 3.175919, "distance_from_trend": -0.01131, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.930205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071597, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.309056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025022, "excess_performance": -0.150646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01131, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004877, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604691, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245855, "relative_activity": 0.689263, "balance": 0.604691, "dry_up": 0.737238, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03082, "annualized_volatility": 0.120509, "from_high_reference": -0.047285, "from_low_reference": 0.033794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.175919, "fair_value_reference": 2.930205, "structural_low": 3.037357, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.002948, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.011335, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.044376, "worst_return": -0.053353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01031, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.061133, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.081016, "worst_return": -0.096518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017871, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.108211, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.076478, "worst_return": -0.12409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.816716, "energy": 20.404734, "activity_lines": [ 3.153488, 3.154041, 3.164326, 3.173059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.1, "volume": 301543, "typical_volume": 404177.55, "trend": 3.181981, "fair_value": 2.922769, "relative_strength": -10.070954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.649261, "energy": 26.46407, "activity_lines": [ 3.136408, 3.144832, 3.158024, 3.167432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.12, "volume": 236726, "typical_volume": 351458.4, "trend": 3.178858, "fair_value": 2.926423, "relative_strength": -10.142828, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.452054, "energy": 33.964327, "activity_lines": [ 3.127717, 3.139733, 3.153893, 3.163433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.14, "volume": 245855, "typical_volume": 356692.65, "trend": 3.175919, "fair_value": 2.930205, "relative_strength": -12.309056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.538707, "energy": 34.220769, "activity_lines": [ 3.126875, 3.138238, 3.151687, 3.160926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }