{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ceeb367b-4f05-4eb1-bec6-d108c222cbd2", "symbol": "ALWIN", "name": "WINAMP GROUP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.437, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.42, "architecture_energy": 22.654, "architecture_maturity": 30.276, "architecture_confidence": 58.508, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.58, "rotation_up": 26.92, "upward_expansion": 9.18, "deceleration": 56.7, "rotation_down": 51.71, "downward_expansion": 53.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.396867, 0.401173, 0.429052, 0.43893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.387, "trend_reference": 0.420817, "distance_from_trend": -0.08036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.65234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.406751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.841507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.465909, "excess_performance": 0.412598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.406751, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124696, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.465909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.865268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139964, "relative_activity": 0.489822, "balance": 1.865268, "dry_up": 0.861909, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186543, "annualized_volatility": 1.199119, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 1.24478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.420817, "fair_value_reference": 0.65234, "structural_low": 0.245, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.109131, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.10763, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.128289, "worst_return": -0.221066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.151316, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.146634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204161, "worst_return": -0.262897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.082498, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121711, "worst_return": -0.286706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.246835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095082, "active": false }, { 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0.219033, "energy": 11.114277, "activity_lines": [ 0.406567, 0.415927, 0.449945, 0.441417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 196043, "typical_volume": 322921.9, "trend": 0.409433, "fair_value": 0.656808, "relative_strength": -4.038054, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.078928, "energy": 19.1641, "activity_lines": [ 0.4056, 0.4103, 0.4429, 0.441283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.401, "volume": 560701, "typical_volume": 304838.0, "trend": 0.415033, "fair_value": 0.654122, "relative_strength": -4.280942, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.307749, "energy": 19.668888, "activity_lines": [ 0.401967, 0.406336, 0.43614, 0.440739 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.387, "volume": 139964, "typical_volume": 285744.8, "trend": 0.420817, "fair_value": 0.65234, "relative_strength": -8.841507, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.419724, "energy": 22.654237, "activity_lines": [ 0.396867, 0.401173, 0.429052, 0.43893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }