{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ceeb70e1-58e3-44b2-a0df-3942789ce554", "symbol": "SUPREMEIND", "name": "The Supreme Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.74, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.088, "architecture_energy": 19.688, "architecture_maturity": 55.071, "architecture_confidence": 74.794, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.66, "rotation_up": 26.4, "upward_expansion": 14.47, "deceleration": 46.42, "rotation_down": 27.91, "downward_expansion": 62.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3442.353288, 3419.352734, 3469.013836, 3538.626003 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3442.0, "trend_reference": 3604.000952, "distance_from_trend": -0.04495, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4184.347439, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.309654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064318, "excess_performance": -0.020609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003346, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177411, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064318, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.30771, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 814288, "relative_activity": 0.891098, "balance": 2.30771, "dry_up": 1.075332, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047561, "annualized_volatility": 0.179823, "from_high_reference": -0.260014, "from_low_reference": 0.096178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3604.000952, "fair_value_reference": 4184.347439, "structural_low": 3140.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.025261, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.002455, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.208417, "worst_return": -0.156604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.08408, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010302, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.278705, "worst_return": -0.171243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015983, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.019599, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.285035, "worst_return": -0.189589, "sufficient": true }, 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4188.331822, "relative_strength": -4.437984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.514165, "energy": 55.022454, "activity_lines": [ 3391.159961, 3415.210134, 3489.415547, 3558.398821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3465.399902, "volume": 1435158, "typical_volume": 919003.9, "trend": 3605.794287, "fair_value": 4187.966966, "relative_strength": -6.318641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.64302, "energy": 27.686134, "activity_lines": [ 3422.106608, 3418.812052, 3479.326353, 3549.193377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3442.0, "volume": 814288, "typical_volume": 913802.65, "trend": 3604.000952, "fair_value": 4184.347439, "relative_strength": -7.309654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.088183, "energy": 19.688237, "activity_lines": [ 3442.353288, 3419.352734, 3469.013836, 3538.626003 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }