{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ceeeeb41-8286-49b7-94ee-0516318d89cd", "symbol": "TND", "name": "Tandem Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 52.634, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.863, "architecture_energy": 42.075, "architecture_maturity": 25.074, "architecture_confidence": 82.746, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.21, "rotation_up": 55.95, "upward_expansion": 80.09, "deceleration": 50.66, "rotation_down": 18.41, "downward_expansion": 9.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 179.0, 176.745455, 173.687608, 172.483316 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 187.0, "trend_reference": 171.807813, "distance_from_trend": 0.088425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 175.466246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065732, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.785688, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010811, "excess_performance": -0.040424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003993, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.815614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119745, "relative_activity": 4.231392, "balance": 1.815614, "dry_up": 2.073133, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069883, "annualized_volatility": 0.202033, "from_high_reference": -0.125023, "from_low_reference": 0.206665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 171.807813, "fair_value_reference": 175.466246, "structural_low": 154.972637, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.00101, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -5.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.162667, "worst_return": -0.319149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056368, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077137, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.314286, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049526, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.109586, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.408163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.4792, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.500742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": -0.504289, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.123077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113514, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 170.0, "volume": 68565, "typical_volume": 21254.4, "trend": 171.141147, "fair_value": 176.254708, "relative_strength": -11.464237, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.612506, "energy": 5.022952, "activity_lines": [ 172.8, 172.807463, 171.166031, 170.902603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 180.0, "volume": 25610, "typical_volume": 22376.05, "trend": 171.357813, "fair_value": 175.838041, "relative_strength": -6.710325, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.692125, "energy": 25.198041, "activity_lines": [ 174.833333, 174.254, 172.117296, 171.474142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 187.0, "volume": 119745, "typical_volume": 28299.2, "trend": 171.807813, "fair_value": 175.466246, "relative_strength": -2.785688, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.863086, "energy": 42.074825, "activity_lines": [ 179.0, 176.745455, 173.687608, 172.483316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }