{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cef92929-d9f9-44f6-8ba3-932e0c480aac", "symbol": "BUNDL5", "name": "SG ETN DAILY LONG +5X BUND FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.172, "architecture_energy": 71.398, "architecture_maturity": 8.842, "architecture_confidence": 85.096, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.12, "rotation_up": 11.47, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 34.32, "rotation_down": 72.45, "downward_expansion": 89.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.983067, 6.1316, 6.194552, 6.280811 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.034, "trend_reference": 6.4227, "distance_from_trend": -0.06052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.774838, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223907, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.287084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115509, "excess_performance": -0.295402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06052, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223907, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661655, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20300, "relative_activity": 0.441375, "balance": 0.661655, "dry_up": 0.71044, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041049, "annualized_volatility": 0.269714, "from_high_reference": -0.197606, "from_low_reference": 0.034991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.4227, "fair_value_reference": 7.774838, "structural_low": 5.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.003091, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.023419, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.241991, "worst_return": -0.173595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.039032, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.09901, "worst_return": -0.082022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03737, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.173508, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.021209, "worst_return": -0.134559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"trend": 6.5049, "fair_value": 7.855363, "relative_strength": -22.131716, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.836224, "energy": 17.835077, "activity_lines": [ 6.394, 6.346291, 6.325714, 6.410639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.056, "volume": 6800, "typical_volume": 45821.25, "trend": 6.486167, "fair_value": 7.835645, "relative_strength": -22.21677, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.692266, "energy": 21.44884, "activity_lines": [ 6.289067, 6.301855, 6.293152, 6.381677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.93, "volume": 54100, "typical_volume": 47026.25, "trend": 6.466033, "fair_value": 7.814107, "relative_strength": -23.105578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.183, "energy": 55.553064, "activity_lines": [ 6.151733, 6.237491, 6.253171, 6.345796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.87, "volume": 49500, "typical_volume": 47259.6, "trend": 6.445233, "fair_value": 7.792889, "relative_strength": -23.830552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.172015, "energy": 74.188145, "activity_lines": [ 6.019067, 6.169091, 6.214095, 6.307342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.034, "volume": 20300, "typical_volume": 45992.6, "trend": 6.4227, "fair_value": 7.774838, "relative_strength": -23.287084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.171841, "energy": 71.397593, "activity_lines": [ 5.983067, 6.1316, 6.194552, 6.280811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }