{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf0743b4-7005-48a8-bf21-1325878997b6", "symbol": "603040", "name": "Hangzhou XZB Tech Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.483, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.123, "architecture_energy": 39.363, "architecture_maturity": 13.281, "architecture_confidence": 61.422, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.7, "rotation_up": 11.46, "upward_expansion": 5.46, "deceleration": 47.31, "rotation_down": 64.45, "downward_expansion": 74.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.518, 58.21511, 59.004024, 59.490021 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.529999, "trend_reference": 61.200849, "distance_from_trend": -0.07632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.933177, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.88854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.906731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259572, "excess_performance": -0.216368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.88854, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009067, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259572, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.994085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8214980, "relative_activity": 0.506278, "balance": 0.994085, "dry_up": 0.727609, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153632, "annualized_volatility": 0.532427, "from_high_reference": -0.33434, "from_low_reference": 0.756703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.200849, "fair_value_reference": 29.933177, "structural_low": 47.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054608, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.045942, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.286408, "worst_return": -0.213384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175768, "worst_return": -0.056587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.223963, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.215981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.58745, "worst_return": -0.139525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.183551, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.174253, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.51893, "worst_return": -0.151829, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096659, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.478175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.224038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.654919, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103363, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", 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61.611724, "fair_value": 29.453977, "relative_strength": -5.870483, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.220532, "energy": 24.710952, "activity_lines": [ 58.264667, 60.653795, 59.817309, 60.429279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.93, "volume": 10439235, "typical_volume": 16600119.4, "trend": 61.406763, "fair_value": 29.678607, "relative_strength": -4.030138, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.225079, "energy": 40.555013, "activity_lines": [ 55.278, 58.905838, 59.175161, 59.804651 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.529999, "volume": 8214980, "typical_volume": 16226229.45, "trend": 61.200849, "fair_value": 29.933177, "relative_strength": 0.906731, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.122889, "energy": 39.363001, "activity_lines": [ 54.518, 58.21511, 59.004024, 59.490021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }