{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf082424-d853-41e3-8f16-90ee93822eed", "symbol": "MDCX", "name": "Medicus Pharma Ltd. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.181, "architecture_energy": 53.293, "architecture_maturity": 54.988, "architecture_confidence": 81.14, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.59, "rotation_up": 17.07, "upward_expansion": 6.64, "deceleration": 57.58, "rotation_down": 64.68, "downward_expansion": 79.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.324533, 0.360371, 0.361038, 0.424513 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.2996, "trend_reference": 0.58657, "distance_from_trend": -0.489234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.11467, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.858323, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -79.843309, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.73009, "excess_performance": -0.917544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.489234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.468597, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.858323, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002471, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.798433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.73009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.880659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10558904, "relative_activity": 0.693408, "balance": 0.880659, "dry_up": 0.586361, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.273955, "annualized_volatility": 2.189744, "from_high_reference": -0.90177, "from_low_reference": 0.1984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.58657, "fair_value_reference": 2.11467, "structural_low": 0.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.17321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.187186, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.525, "worst_return": -0.178579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 2.24, "volume": 583798, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 1.92, "volume": 205662, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 2.696, 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"typical_volume": 24102110.5, "trend": 0.75605, "fair_value": 2.196717, "relative_strength": -76.412536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.936446, "energy": 24.53438, "activity_lines": [ 0.421993, 0.396698, 0.388306, 0.517955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.3758, "volume": 8716215, "typical_volume": 24423353.2, "trend": 0.712243, "fair_value": 2.176025, "relative_strength": -76.350096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.022039, "energy": 31.548954, "activity_lines": [ 0.408787, 0.396987, 0.381351, 0.493423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.37, "volume": 4054150, "typical_volume": 22401956.35, "trend": 0.67241, "fair_value": 2.155733, "relative_strength": -75.37338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.133901, "energy": 38.140494, "activity_lines": [ 0.391107, 0.39548, 0.37934, 0.471343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2752, "volume": 12386096, "typical_volume": 15078864.55, "trend": 0.62825, "fair_value": 2.134838, "relative_strength": -81.07774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.351784, "energy": 49.320748, "activity_lines": [ 0.34766, 0.375482, 0.368383, 0.445717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2996, "volume": 10558904, "typical_volume": 15227543.75, "trend": 0.58657, "fair_value": 2.11467, "relative_strength": -79.843309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.180597, "energy": 53.293434, "activity_lines": [ 0.324533, 0.360371, 0.361038, 0.424513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }