{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf0ab96f-d301-47d6-8f59-446356faaeb4", "symbol": "MTF-F44", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) S&P Energy Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.985, "architecture_energy": 63.17, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.279, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.88, "rotation_down": 47.1, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.479333, 44.386182, 1210.973048, 2033.562237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.24, "trend_reference": 2899.253667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3287.061603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.694651, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988841, "excess_performance": -1.017741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986237, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.234619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.890714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.263984, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28198, "relative_activity": 0.697119, "balance": 2.263984, "dry_up": 0.698435, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.766867, "annualized_volatility": 6.34443, "from_high_reference": -0.990773, "from_low_reference": 0.096196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2899.253667, "fair_value_reference": 3287.061603, "structural_low": 41.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.045973, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.001759, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.168259, "worst_return": -0.010601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.126909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.079065, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168675, "worst_return": 0.057279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095117, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.024765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.458068, "worst_return": -0.029535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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3064.782366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.91, "volume": 43838, "typical_volume": 68728.05, "trend": 3353.739, "fair_value": 3368.584423, "relative_strength": -98.844335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.660033, "energy": 89.016794, "activity_lines": [ 42.172667, 854.680727, 2271.667333, 2843.730839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.82, "volume": 32286, "typical_volume": 67227.25, "trend": 3241.699667, "fair_value": 3348.288397, "relative_strength": -98.789962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.30414, "energy": 87.797103, "activity_lines": [ 42.997333, 531.754, 1975.939857, 2630.252194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.08, "volume": 24299, "typical_volume": 60278.7, "trend": 3129.302333, "fair_value": 3328.397885, "relative_strength": -98.75939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.895375, "energy": 67.846037, "activity_lines": [ 44.187333, 286.641455, 1700.285619, 2424.083183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.3, "volume": 28222, "typical_volume": 47300.7, "trend": 3015.312333, "fair_value": 3307.758782, "relative_strength": -98.691144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.427808, "energy": 67.053057, "activity_lines": [ 45.158, 122.931091, 1445.271, 2225.179806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.24, "volume": 28198, "typical_volume": 40449.35, "trend": 2899.253667, "fair_value": 3287.061603, "relative_strength": -98.694651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.984938, "energy": 63.170351, "activity_lines": [ 45.479333, 44.386182, 1210.973048, 2033.562237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }