{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf0ad242-9d12-45f4-9031-8ff0c92e472b", "symbol": "QQEW", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ-100 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.528, "architecture_energy": 49.535, "architecture_maturity": 67.391, "architecture_confidence": 62.624, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.33, "rotation_up": 48.6, "upward_expansion": 76.46, "deceleration": 67.95, "rotation_down": 28.47, "downward_expansion": 12.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.699333, 156.202505, 152.703553, 147.9994 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 161.99, "trend_reference": 143.108393, "distance_from_trend": 0.131939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 127.956388, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265978, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.063534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.204527, "excess_performance": 0.017073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131939, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094541, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.204527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.40546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279337, "relative_activity": 1.203022, "balance": 1.40546, "dry_up": 0.869006, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038432, "annualized_volatility": 0.197675, "from_high_reference": -0.010597, "from_low_reference": 0.323664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 143.108393, "fair_value_reference": 127.956388, "structural_low": 122.38, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.008293, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006546, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.051989, "worst_return": -0.060431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015857, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.025578, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.05599, "worst_return": -0.117211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019573, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.061043, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.162907, "worst_return": -0.027412, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 157.109627, 155.183509, 148.312413, 144.51549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 153.54, "volume": 188623, "typical_volume": 243726.7, "trend": 141.831175, "fair_value": 127.022955, "relative_strength": -1.970623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.868944, "energy": 55.564187, "activity_lines": [ 156.172067, 155.285498, 149.368475, 145.293246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.03, "volume": 224498, "typical_volume": 242946.05, "trend": 142.048283, "fair_value": 127.284559, "relative_strength": -1.790429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.822589, "energy": 43.872725, "activity_lines": [ 154.41584, 154.776513, 150.092847, 145.886718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 155.32, "volume": 114661, "typical_volume": 231670.5, "trend": 142.515143, "fair_value": 127.594956, "relative_strength": 0.595938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.178141, "energy": 39.104873, "activity_lines": [ 154.475333, 154.926509, 151.141014, 146.742958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.99, "volume": 279337, "typical_volume": 232196.15, "trend": 143.108393, "fair_value": 127.956388, "relative_strength": -0.063534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.528173, "energy": 49.53485, "activity_lines": [ 156.699333, 156.202505, 152.703553, 147.9994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }