{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf128235-7d5e-46b8-9d1c-c9a3213c794b", "symbol": "XSDX", "name": "Xtrackers ShortDAX Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.059, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.893, "architecture_energy": 45.053, "architecture_maturity": 28.404, "architecture_confidence": 94.618, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.16, "rotation_up": 22.53, "upward_expansion": 5.98, "deceleration": 47.32, "rotation_down": 50.28, "downward_expansion": 76.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.448933, 8.486891, 8.555924, 8.631495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.25, "trend_reference": 8.673833, "distance_from_trend": -0.048863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.276307, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197182, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.459173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04014, "excess_performance": -0.123023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197182, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09657, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.680684, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49891, "relative_activity": 1.073796, "balance": 0.680684, "dry_up": 1.091623, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024671, "annualized_volatility": 0.16972, "from_high_reference": -0.142412, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.673833, "fair_value_reference": 10.276307, "structural_low": 8.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.008024, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.017434, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.053735, "worst_return": -0.092287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.017587, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03312, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.060403, "worst_return": -0.134981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028547, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.101875, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126783, "worst_return": -0.161784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.093055, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.098691, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.047045, "worst_return": -0.180563, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.038959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.205311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016718, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 8.6841, "fair_value": 10.303679, "relative_strength": -12.672376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.238735, "energy": 28.356468, "activity_lines": [ 8.533333, 8.538782, 8.601729, 8.659501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.25, "volume": 49891, "typical_volume": 46462.25, "trend": 8.673833, "fair_value": 10.276307, "relative_strength": -15.459173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.892605, "energy": 45.053218, "activity_lines": [ 8.448933, 8.486891, 8.555924, 8.631495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }