{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf153821-94d9-4147-8aed-17af3bb58440", "symbol": "600662", "name": "Shanghai Foreign Service Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.667, "architecture_energy": 31.941, "architecture_maturity": 92.322, "architecture_confidence": 76.67, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.42, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 23.19, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 59.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.348, 4.269273, 4.411714, 4.639828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 4.980333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.849355, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.893885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288026, "excess_performance": -0.244822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288026, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71195363, "relative_activity": 1.309417, "balance": 0.862964, "dry_up": 1.402822, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056119, "annualized_volatility": 0.208371, "from_high_reference": -0.360465, "from_low_reference": 0.102757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.980333, "fair_value_reference": 4.849355, "structural_low": 3.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.011049, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.00609, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.300771, "worst_return": -0.132673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01938, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.007302, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.350962, "worst_return": -0.128713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.101196, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.050427, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157979, "worst_return": -0.180747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 4.860168, "relative_strength": -16.265342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.560595, "energy": 62.544369, "activity_lines": [ 4.158, 4.192727, 4.447381, 4.709527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.54, "volume": 81095127, "typical_volume": 53809646.45, "trend": 5.001, "fair_value": 4.855415, "relative_strength": -9.222603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.921691, "energy": 44.614473, "activity_lines": [ 4.294, 4.243091, 4.433952, 4.678602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 71195363, "typical_volume": 54371797.2, "trend": 4.980333, "fair_value": 4.849355, "relative_strength": -13.893885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.66736, "energy": 31.941008, "activity_lines": [ 4.348, 4.269273, 4.411714, 4.639828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }