{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf19e7bd-6228-43b7-b272-0767366220d5", "symbol": "ANSALAPI", "name": "Ansal Properties & Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.767, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.734, "architecture_energy": 20.306, "architecture_maturity": 62.771, "architecture_confidence": 67.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.7, "rotation_up": 32.5, "upward_expansion": 18.36, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 23.47, "downward_expansion": 63.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.216667, 3.094182, 3.31881, 3.376968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.55, "trend_reference": 3.401333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.526026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.528303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.678979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.171617, "excess_performance": 0.215326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039714, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.528303, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073465, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66375, "relative_activity": 0.819644, "balance": 1.608358, "dry_up": 1.272529, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078657, "annualized_volatility": 0.54048, "from_high_reference": -0.36036, "from_low_reference": 0.414343 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.401333, "fair_value_reference": 7.526026, "structural_low": 2.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.023998, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.010882, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.386473, "worst_return": -0.407143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.015, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.049773, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.652561, "worst_return": -0.460714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.112994, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.177238, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.553927, "worst_return": -0.421053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.201373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037221, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.171617, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.65, "volume": 418473, "typical_volume": 382871.95, "trend": 10.118333, "fair_value": 11.685577, "relative_strength": -44.032238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.03, "volume": 231191, "typical_volume": 89112.1, "trend": 3.392, "fair_value": 7.586731, "relative_strength": -17.380798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.952831, "energy": 82.543384, "activity_lines": [ 2.827333, 3.007818, 3.310238, 3.370774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.33, "volume": 31462, "typical_volume": 82845.0, "trend": 3.392, "fair_value": 7.555192, "relative_strength": -10.672471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.149702, "energy": 50.789022, "activity_lines": [ 2.996667, 3.023273, 3.303429, 3.366774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.55, "volume": 66375, "typical_volume": 80980.25, "trend": 3.401333, "fair_value": 7.526026, "relative_strength": -4.678979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.733603, "energy": 20.305937, "activity_lines": [ 3.216667, 3.094182, 3.31881, 3.376968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }