{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf1c291f-b362-4eac-9106-512f4c2f8924", "symbol": "000008", "name": "China High-Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.275, "architecture_energy": 39.522, "architecture_maturity": 83.142, "architecture_confidence": 68.215, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.34, "rotation_up": 24.38, "upward_expansion": 12.29, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 44.93, "downward_expansion": 71.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.357333, 2.357273, 2.453524, 2.551398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.42, "trend_reference": 2.695667, "distance_from_trend": -0.102263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.573526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.638557, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.219355, "excess_performance": -0.226755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070139, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059656, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045606, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.29944, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172267569, "relative_activity": 0.671507, "balance": 0.29944, "dry_up": 0.705041, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069612, "annualized_volatility": 0.249136, "from_high_reference": -0.327778, "from_low_reference": 0.095023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.695667, "fair_value_reference": 2.573526, "structural_low": 2.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.00431, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.000476, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.218605, "worst_return": -0.115044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018433, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.040798, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.154982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086364, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.044323, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.271889, "worst_return": -0.067568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 2.358667, 2.437455, 2.555238, 2.654301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.29, "volume": 270601147, "typical_volume": 274177592.75, "trend": 2.748667, "fair_value": 2.573462, "relative_strength": -19.567357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.669189, "energy": 79.031083, "activity_lines": [ 2.33, 2.396364, 2.52019, 2.623419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.28, "volume": 157471938, "typical_volume": 268330419.1, "trend": 2.727667, "fair_value": 2.572821, "relative_strength": -19.642302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.626084, "energy": 66.147863, "activity_lines": [ 2.308667, 2.362909, 2.487619, 2.593183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.37, "volume": 123139932, "typical_volume": 260720833.75, "trend": 2.71, "fair_value": 2.572949, "relative_strength": -14.623248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.275729, "energy": 50.152865, "activity_lines": [ 2.328667, 2.353273, 2.466714, 2.570108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.42, "volume": 172267569, "typical_volume": 256538639.2, "trend": 2.695667, "fair_value": 2.573526, "relative_strength": -16.638557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.275152, "energy": 39.521607, "activity_lines": [ 2.357333, 2.357273, 2.453524, 2.551398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }