{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf1cca2b-29c5-43f7-8d6d-89770a812d53", "symbol": "300355", "name": "M-Grass Ecology And Environment (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.888, "architecture_energy": 55.294, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.598, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.18, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 22.39, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 49.23, "downward_expansion": 74.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.851333, 2.836364, 3.031429, 3.24871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.91, "trend_reference": 3.528333, "distance_from_trend": -0.175248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.893559, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.252612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.409708, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.283251, "excess_performance": -0.290651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.252612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187423, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014098, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105084572, "relative_activity": 0.982988, "balance": 0.186842, "dry_up": 1.058161, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065028, "annualized_volatility": 0.352648, "from_high_reference": -0.407332, "from_low_reference": 0.093985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.528333, "fair_value_reference": 3.893559, "structural_low": 2.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.004348, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.008037, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 1.072244, "worst_return": -0.178322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040404, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.104099, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.659664, "worst_return": -0.212291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080662, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.13319, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.142857, "worst_return": -0.308824, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 131516470.25, "trend": 3.648667, "fair_value": 3.905716, "relative_strength": -30.98453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.528645, "energy": 89.489337, "activity_lines": [ 2.777333, 2.882727, 3.173714, 3.393183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.75, "volume": 107356496, "typical_volume": 116808224.65, "trend": 3.604667, "fair_value": 3.90152, "relative_strength": -30.451113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.14145, "energy": 81.842506, "activity_lines": [ 2.764, 2.834909, 3.108905, 3.335204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.92, "volume": 125207452, "typical_volume": 110550921.15, "trend": 3.566, "fair_value": 3.89773, "relative_strength": -24.187419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.497725, "energy": 64.065248, "activity_lines": [ 2.816667, 2.832545, 3.067667, 3.291032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.91, "volume": 105084572, "typical_volume": 106903231.0, "trend": 3.528333, "fair_value": 3.893559, "relative_strength": -27.409708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.888474, "energy": 55.294361, "activity_lines": [ 2.851333, 2.836364, 3.031429, 3.24871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }