{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf2081e3-c9f9-49d5-ba1a-c1f176b93c9e", "symbol": "SHIM", "name": "Shimmick Corporation Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.952, "architecture_energy": 7.139, "architecture_maturity": 13.571, "architecture_confidence": 59.631, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.4, "rotation_up": 31.0, "upward_expansion": 26.01, "deceleration": 45.5, "rotation_down": 33.28, "downward_expansion": 27.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.957333, 3.913455, 4.083857, 4.072 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 4.008667, "distance_from_trend": 0.102611, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.311706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334659, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.628386, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054893, "excess_performance": -0.132561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102611, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334659, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.126284, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.536746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054893, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 332391, "relative_activity": 0.442432, "balance": 0.497039, "dry_up": 0.444704, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178241, "annualized_volatility": 0.856988, "from_high_reference": -0.346473, "from_low_reference": 1.415301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.008667, "fair_value_reference": 3.311706, "structural_low": 2.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.204193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.204982, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.57754, "worst_return": -0.169154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.405473, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.319796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405473, "worst_return": 0.405473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.517413, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.41243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.517413, "worst_return": 0.517413, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.99005, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.70418, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.99005, "worst_return": 0.99005, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.200957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.617647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.77, "volume": 273306, "typical_volume": 825166.7, "trend": 3.911333, "fair_value": 3.295065, "relative_strength": -1.319759, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.236634, "energy": 8.901231, "activity_lines": [ 3.909333, 3.920909, 4.173667, 4.087247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.71, "volume": 339660, "typical_volume": 832308.0, "trend": 3.943333, "fair_value": 3.298029, "relative_strength": 0.782549, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.189099, "energy": 5.724244, "activity_lines": [ 3.855333, 3.846727, 4.135571, 4.074258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.65, "volume": 195634, "typical_volume": 835464.9, "trend": 3.958667, "fair_value": 3.300525, "relative_strength": 0.167822, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.293076, "energy": 14.149482, "activity_lines": [ 3.778, 3.798909, 4.090952, 4.055333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.78, "volume": 468707, "typical_volume": 832515.35, "trend": 3.983, "fair_value": 3.303901, "relative_strength": 2.257162, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.458095, "energy": 19.27138, "activity_lines": [ 3.744667, 3.798727, 4.058286, 4.043806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 332391, "typical_volume": 751282.0, "trend": 4.008667, "fair_value": 3.311706, "relative_strength": 12.628386, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.952073, "energy": 7.13914, "activity_lines": [ 3.957333, 3.913455, 4.083857, 4.072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }