{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf23186d-a0a1-4cb9-9f1c-7a330109426f", "symbol": "SCHC", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR INTL SMALL CAP EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.35, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.503, "architecture_energy": 11.932, "architecture_maturity": 20.98, "architecture_confidence": 46.92, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.59, "rotation_up": 35.11, "upward_expansion": 30.45, "deceleration": 48.05, "rotation_down": 35.31, "downward_expansion": 25.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.984, 48.722969, 49.052348, 48.967132 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.68, "trend_reference": 48.928911, "distance_from_trend": 0.035788, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.186641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.533198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029454, "excess_performance": -0.096171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027914, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.036454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1854582, "relative_activity": 0.991824, "balance": 1.036454, "dry_up": 0.836806, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031848, "annualized_volatility": 0.202687, "from_high_reference": -0.0213, "from_low_reference": 0.207183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.928911, "fair_value_reference": 38.186641, "structural_low": 44.955, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006073, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018417, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.077303, "worst_return": -0.076852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002709, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175602, "worst_return": -0.001983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060363, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.102747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245935, 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"relative_strength": -6.036994, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.261011, "energy": 17.51971, "activity_lines": [ 48.47172, 48.921759, 49.061392, 48.961173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.79, "volume": 1617038, "typical_volume": 2101262.9, "trend": 48.655244, "fair_value": 37.847349, "relative_strength": -5.509015, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.183849, "energy": 27.939031, "activity_lines": [ 48.169926, 48.634625, 48.959405, 48.911179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.04, "volume": 1536612, "typical_volume": 2004496.5, "trend": 48.728244, "fair_value": 37.950407, "relative_strength": -4.402448, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.301595, "energy": 30.677179, "activity_lines": [ 48.074, 48.454663, 48.899084, 48.871486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.34, "volume": 1250640, "typical_volume": 1927793.5, "trend": 48.809244, "fair_value": 38.060385, "relative_strength": -4.797427, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.885129, "energy": 24.981597, "activity_lines": [ 48.158667, 48.359754, 48.868764, 48.846438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.68, "volume": 1854582, "typical_volume": 1869870.25, "trend": 48.928911, "fair_value": 38.186641, "relative_strength": -3.533198, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.502863, "energy": 11.931764, "activity_lines": [ 48.984, 48.722969, 49.052348, 48.967132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }