{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf23caa5-bfca-4348-ae15-b5a70ca4a3f6", "symbol": "MOH", "name": "Moho Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.222, "architecture_energy": 83.944, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.825, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.65, "rotation_up": 8.11, "upward_expansion": 18.91, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 78.84, "downward_expansion": 92.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.007336, 0.008176, 0.008299 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.0086, "distance_from_trend": -0.302326, "trend_direction": "Stable", "fair_value": 0.006596, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.457021, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.397039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.302326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.386778, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.561584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.13661, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2634045, "relative_activity": 0.371975, "balance": 0.13661, "dry_up": 0.522197, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185897, "annualized_volatility": 0.771248, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0086, "fair_value_reference": 0.006596, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.282051, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.075014, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.177656, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.307049, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.52381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.535714, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.57915, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.333333, "worst_return": -0.626667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.008, "volume": 685718, "typical_volume": 7501897.2, "trend": 0.008833, "fair_value": 0.006686, "relative_strength": 0.116939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.900124, "energy": 26.151439, "activity_lines": [ 0.008533, 0.008855, 0.008933, 0.00883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 6834545, "typical_volume": 7709206.9, "trend": 0.008733, "fair_value": 0.006654, "relative_strength": -25.05637, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.348826, "energy": 65.10572, "activity_lines": [ 0.007667, 0.008291, 0.008676, 0.008647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 4636891, "typical_volume": 7927242.6, "trend": 0.008667, "fair_value": 0.006622, "relative_strength": -27.081102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.216802, "energy": 79.258799, "activity_lines": [ 0.007, 0.007782, 0.008424, 0.008471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 2634045, "typical_volume": 7081241.1, "trend": 0.0086, "fair_value": 0.006596, "relative_strength": -29.457021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.221904, "energy": 83.944127, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.007336, 0.008176, 0.008299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }