{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf2b08c1-2464-4451-9dbe-f345f1a22e4b", "symbol": "MTF-F28", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) S&P Health Care", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.786, "architecture_energy": 63.03, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.245, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.871333, 48.993636, 1170.417381, 2049.640108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 49.89, "trend_reference": 3088.473333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4658.558974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989291, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.838528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989777, "excess_performance": -1.018677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989291, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.841438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.671536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989777, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.046535, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19399, "relative_activity": 0.528232, "balance": 1.046535, "dry_up": 0.583386, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.186133, "annualized_volatility": 6.322958, "from_high_reference": -0.990428, "from_low_reference": 0.152993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3088.473333, "fair_value_reference": 4658.558974, "structural_low": 43.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.00178, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031488, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.120341, "worst_return": -0.989695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.172784, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.056716, "worst_return": -0.988752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001501, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.229059, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104296, "worst_return": -0.101294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034229, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081218, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.991066, "energy": 76.689036, "activity_lines": [ 48.832, 508.793818, 1922.694095, 2701.569591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.58, "volume": 24702, "typical_volume": 35435.7, "trend": 3417.869667, "fair_value": 4719.667244, "relative_strength": -98.927843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.626062, "energy": 67.534619, "activity_lines": [ 49.366667, 278.144545, 1649.542143, 2473.642473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.22, "volume": 36131, "typical_volume": 36596.95, "trend": 3254.277, "fair_value": 4689.373782, "relative_strength": -98.857128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.2218, "energy": 66.895451, "activity_lines": [ 49.778667, 124.764727, 1398.815048, 2256.374753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.89, "volume": 19399, "typical_volume": 36724.4, "trend": 3088.473333, "fair_value": 4658.558974, "relative_strength": -98.838528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.786104, "energy": 63.03005, "activity_lines": [ 49.871333, 48.993636, 1170.417381, 2049.640108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }