{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf2f1e05-9c7f-4636-b652-18e689141f01", "symbol": "TPED", "name": "PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.97, "architecture_energy": 31.771, "architecture_maturity": 31.879, "architecture_confidence": 75.625, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.22, "rotation_up": 63.43, "upward_expansion": 36.28, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 16.78, "downward_expansion": 22.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.718, 5.560909, 5.61281, 5.645968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.8, "trend_reference": 5.566569, "distance_from_trend": 0.041934, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.771052, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.431045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.183841, "excess_performance": 0.029006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080787, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215665, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.535813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5800, "relative_activity": 0.262384, "balance": 1.535813, "dry_up": 0.625424, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039125, "annualized_volatility": 0.261272, "from_high_reference": -0.71, "from_low_reference": 0.432476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.566569, "fair_value_reference": 4.771052, "structural_low": 4.928295, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011477, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132589, "worst_return": -0.109634, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.058791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074877, "worst_return": -0.192459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.023696, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.114742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.023696, "worst_return": -0.023696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073009, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078712, "active": 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5.590019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.77, "volume": 20300, "typical_volume": 24860.0, "trend": 5.478578, "fair_value": 4.763772, "relative_strength": -1.26621, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.248039, "energy": 7.621909, "activity_lines": [ 5.513333, 5.460727, 5.606143, 5.611649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.73, "volume": 16600, "typical_volume": 22745.0, "trend": 5.519474, "fair_value": 4.767555, "relative_strength": -2.511052, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.543086, "energy": 22.27424, "activity_lines": [ 5.626, 5.502, 5.605905, 5.62787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.8, "volume": 5800, "typical_volume": 22105.0, "trend": 5.566569, "fair_value": 4.771052, "relative_strength": -2.431045, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.970215, "energy": 31.77067, "activity_lines": [ 5.718, 5.560909, 5.61281, 5.645968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }