{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf2f64ba-3845-497a-af97-c00820d07e5c", "symbol": "002970", "name": "Streamax Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.869, "architecture_energy": 74.872, "architecture_maturity": 18.845, "architecture_confidence": 86.76, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.22, "rotation_up": 9.97, "upward_expansion": 17.44, "deceleration": 37.48, "rotation_down": 72.37, "downward_expansion": 90.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.232668, 52.222546, 57.881885, 60.783619 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.400002, "trend_reference": 63.110774, "distance_from_trend": -0.185559, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.147674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.958725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157414, "excess_performance": -0.164814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.517549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23157548, "relative_activity": 0.908354, "balance": 0.517549, "dry_up": 0.928064, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146588, "annualized_volatility": 0.64287, "from_high_reference": -0.389835, "from_low_reference": 0.231348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.110774, "fair_value_reference": 43.147674, "structural_low": 42.639999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.048584, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.015352, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.224359, "worst_return": -0.182023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016822, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.041672, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.706312, "worst_return": -0.380106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.20976, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.083716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.387133, "worst_return": -0.161259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 58.860001, "volume": 21843827, "typical_volume": 26383817.6, "trend": 63.150794, "fair_value": 42.7029, "relative_strength": -4.35789, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.763392, "energy": 48.868786, "activity_lines": [ 58.114, 61.115999, 63.925019, 64.65597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.720001, "volume": 26131697, "typical_volume": 26519922.8, "trend": 63.165565, "fair_value": 42.817008, "relative_strength": -14.534475, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.970101, "energy": 66.299361, "activity_lines": [ 54.238667, 58.076909, 62.155676, 63.660435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.650002, "volume": 25020640, "typical_volume": 26090606.95, "trend": 63.034311, "fair_value": 42.912791, "relative_strength": -18.277743, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.90423, "energy": 78.515045, "activity_lines": [ 50.625334, 55.172546, 60.349397, 62.530399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.560001, "volume": 20330200, "typical_volume": 25363167.95, "trend": 63.000774, "fair_value": 43.00413, "relative_strength": -13.381361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.81983, "energy": 77.785464, "activity_lines": [ 49.035335, 53.122182, 58.875488, 61.532056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.400002, "volume": 23157548, "typical_volume": 25493955.05, "trend": 63.110774, "fair_value": 43.147674, "relative_strength": -10.958725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.868776, "energy": 74.872137, "activity_lines": [ 49.232668, 52.222546, 57.881885, 60.783619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }