{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf31af46-b51d-4e84-acf5-4adf9dc00a08", "symbol": "DOXA", "name": "Doxa AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.628, "architecture_energy": 58.093, "architecture_maturity": 24.716, "architecture_confidence": 92.421, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.06, "rotation_up": 16.5, "upward_expansion": 10.72, "deceleration": 42.41, "rotation_down": 67.78, "downward_expansion": 88.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.356367, 0.363845, 0.383979, 0.3938 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.35, "trend_reference": 0.404133, "distance_from_trend": -0.133949, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.281749, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.726936, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.058247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.186494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.726936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006347, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310582, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.306482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3390338, "relative_activity": 1.14912, "balance": 0.306482, "dry_up": 0.857982, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093297, "annualized_volatility": 0.365194, "from_high_reference": -0.392361, "from_low_reference": 0.030928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.404133, "fair_value_reference": 1.281749, "structural_low": 0.3395, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.018123, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.008288, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.324242, "worst_return": -0.500823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.074568, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.077177, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.387879, "worst_return": -0.621928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.132484, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.1975, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.569697, "worst_return": -0.688091, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.174522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.13522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.827586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }