{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf339725-19fa-44d9-8b86-b16345094718", "symbol": "SCITY", "name": "Amundi MSCI Smart Cities UCITS ETF ACC", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.547, "architecture_energy": 32.706, "architecture_maturity": 68.052, "architecture_confidence": 85.12, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.36, "rotation_up": 26.85, "upward_expansion": 59.78, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 34.91, "downward_expansion": 21.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.244667, 95.739473, 94.888511, 92.153044 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 96.57, "trend_reference": 88.746967, "distance_from_trend": 0.08815, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 68.590592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.407919, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.816949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.190004, "excess_performance": 0.073341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08815, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.407919, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04826, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038169, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.190004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.642325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169, "relative_activity": 0.921734, "balance": 0.642325, "dry_up": 1.737115, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033121, "annualized_volatility": 0.273068, "from_high_reference": -0.05305, "from_low_reference": 0.410642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.746967, "fair_value_reference": 68.590592, "structural_low": 76.200996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019731, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.016289, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.096999, "worst_return": -0.026354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045837, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.016956, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.228533, "worst_return": -0.084815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.100125, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129066, "worst_return": -0.017524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011924, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071624, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010542, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 95.013333, 96.8268, 94.205677, 91.319612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.260002, "volume": 893, "typical_volume": 174.9, "trend": 88.188201, "fair_value": 68.322019, "relative_strength": 0.454329, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.733691, "energy": 37.483773, "activity_lines": [ 93.712, 95.87111, 94.371168, 91.612283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.57, "volume": 169, "typical_volume": 183.35, "trend": 88.746967, "fair_value": 68.590592, "relative_strength": 3.816949, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.546965, "energy": 32.705933, "activity_lines": [ 94.244667, 95.739473, 94.888511, 92.153044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }